State Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) opened a six-point lead over former U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) in the Alabama congressional race for the First District, and Carl’s comeback bid shows no signs of catching up.
The PI Polling survey, conducted May 2 through May 4 for Alabama Daily News, puts Marques at 27% and Carl at 21% among likely Republican primary voters. Joshua McKee trailed at 4%.
The trend line tells the sharper story. Marques climbed steadily across three consecutive PI Polling surveys, rising from 19% in early April to 22% later that month to 27% now. Carl posted 23%, 20%, and 21% across the same stretch. Marques is building. Carl is treading water.
Forty-five percent of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided, meaning the Alabama congressional race will be decided by which campaign breaks through in the final two weeks.
Carl pulls 46% in Mobile County, home turf for the former county commissioner and congressman.
That advantage vanishes everywhere else. Marques leads in Baldwin County, holds a 32-to-6 edge in the Dothan media market, and dominates the district’s rural and exurban counties at 38% to Carl’s 5%.
The Alabama congressional race outside Mobile belongs to Marques.
Marques also leads Carl across every ideological group the survey tracked: very conservative voters at 29% to 21%, somewhat conservative voters at 26% to 21%, and moderates at 26% to 19%.
His favorability climbed from 24% in early April to 32% now, with just 9% unfavorable. Fifty-nine percent of voters still have no opinion of him, leaving significant room to grow as the primary closes.
Alabama requires a majority to win a party primary outright. If no candidate clears 50% on May 19, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on June 16. With nearly half the electorate still uncommitted, a runoff remains a very real possibility.
The survey was conducted May 2 through May 4, 2026 by PI Polling for Alabama Daily News. It included 531 likely Republican primary election voters and was weighted to match likely 2026 turnout demographics. The margin of error is ±4.3% at a 95% level of confidence.
Sawyer Knowles is a capitol reporter for Yellowhammer News. You may contact him at [email protected].
