Chief justice race analysis: Despite fundraising lead, early projections, Vance trailing Parker by wide margin

Despite significant fundraising success and early predictions of a tight race, recent polling has shown that Democratic nominee Judge Bob Vance is trailing Associate Justice Tom Parker in the race to become Alabama’s next Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court by a lot.

Vance has raised a formidable $810,547.19 in total funds, with $550,453.82 remaining to begin the last month of campaigning. On the other hand, Parker has hauled in $594,377.05 in total, most of which came during the heated Republican primary between him and current Chief Justice Lyn Stuart. Parker has $181,999.81 left on hand, but will expect to get more money from the Alabama Association for Justice if needed.

This fundraising prowess for Vance is, in part, based off of the high expectations that political observers held for the Jefferson County moderate Democrat going into the general election. After all, Vance nearly beat former Chief Justice Roy Moore for the same position in 2012, and Parker has been an unabashed Moore confidant for years.

In a recent ad, Vance tried to draw that connection for voters, hoping independents, moderates and Chamber of Commerce Republicans will break his way.

However, polling indicates that Vance has a steep hill to climb if he even wants to make the race a contest. In a survey released by the Alabama Farmers Federation, Parker is at 53 percent and Vance is at 39 percent. This is Vance’s high-water mark, as polling obtained by Yellowhammer News has Vance at 32 percent, with Parker garnering 52 percent. This data showed Vance shockingly underperforming the Democratic nominees for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state.

While Vance has a sizable war chest that can get him on television at a good clip in the campaign’s homestretch, it seems like a bridge-too-far in the end. Unless there is a last minute Moore-esque bombshell in the race, expect Parker to win without breaking too much of a sweat, especially with conservative voters fired up over the Democrats’ handling of Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation process.

Sean Ross is a staff writer for Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @sean_yhn