The Alabama Crimson Tide is headed into year three of the Kalen DeBoer era in 2026 and the program is in a little bit of an unfamiliar spot now.

While a national championship will be the expectation every year in Tuscaloosa from the fanbase, things have undeniably changed in terms of just how realistic that goal actually is.

Make no mistake, the roster is still talented enough to get it done if a whole lot goes right, but other programs and other conferences have caught up, and we likely will never again see a team dominate college football the way Saban did for decades.

For DeBoer this year, what is a fair and realistic expectation?

It’s a tough question to answer. For the second straight season, a new quarterback is going to be broken in, and with a ton of shuffling along the offensive line and receiver group as well, it’s an entirely new offense for the most part.

The defense should be solid and the secondary is among the best in the nation, but as is now always the case in the SEC, the schedule is brutal.

With games against Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M, Tennessee  and others folks may not see coming as still difficult in this conference, Alabama has its lowest over/under win total (8.5) it has had in a very long time. Ultimately, this is going to be a very young team this year and if fans are being realistic, 2027 is more likely to be the year to make a real run if DeBoer can retain the roster.

That being said, this team should absolutely still contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff with somewhere between 9 or 10 wins, and if they can get to that, the year would be a success.

Any hot seat talk from fans was dispelled once Alabama extended DeBoer and showed faith that he is this team’s coach going forward. For better or worse, DeBoer is extremely likely to still be on the sidelines in 2027.

If he can make it through 2026 while remaining competitive and even making the College Football Playoff, fans should look at that as a win with the hope that next year, the national title talk becomes very real.