The University of Virginia Center for Politics’ Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated Alabama’s redrawn 2nd Congressional District “Leans Democratic” in its final 2026 ratings on Monday, the fourth time the forecaster has moved the race toward U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Mobile) since the Legislature redrew the district this year.
The Crystal Ball rated the new district “Likely Republican” when it first assessed the map in August. It moved the race to “Leans Republican” in October, to “Toss-up” on October 27 and to “Leans Democratic” on Monday, one day before voters decide between Figures and State Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise).
The new 2nd District drops Mobile, Figures’ home base, and cuts the district’s Black voting-age population from roughly 49% to 40%. President Donald Trump carried the territory by 14 points in 2024, and the Cook Political Report rates it R+7.
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Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik and associate editor J. Miles Coleman wrote that they “leaned the bulk of the final Toss-ups to Democrats,” with their last batch breaking 14-3 for the Democratic column.
The final ratings put 239 House seats at least Leans Democratic and 196 at least Leans Republican, 53 Senate seats at least Leans Democratic and 28 governorships at least Leans Democratic.
When the forecaster moved Figures to Toss-up last week, it described him as a Democrat “who got a tougher district for 2026.”
The Cook Political Report has not followed. Cook moved the district from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in June and from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on Friday. The two forecasters now lean the race in opposite directions.
Public polling has stayed inside the margin of error. A Remington Research Group survey of 642 likely voters conducted October 23-25 showed Marques ahead 48%-46%.
A DCCC internal poll in August had the candidates tied at 46%, and a June IMPACT Research poll for national Democrats found Marques ahead 45%-44%.
Marques, a former Enterprise tire shop owner who has served in the Alabama House since 2018, won the August 11 special primary with 50.03% of the vote in a six-candidate field. Trump endorsed him in June, and Marques spoke ahead of the president at his Mobile rally in October. U.S. Senator Katie Britt (R-Montgomery), a fellow Enterprise native, has backed him since he announced in August 2025.
“In Alabama’s Second District, the choice on the ballot truly comes down to two things: Craziness or common sense,” Marques said at the rally. “It’s that simple.”
Figures has said he still represents 60% of the people and half of the counties in the new district. He qualified in the final hour after the U.S. Supreme Court lifted the injunction on the Legislature’s map in May and Governor Kay Ivey called special primaries for August 11.
A Marques win would restore a 6-1 Republican delegation. Polls open at 7 a.m. Tuesday.
Grayson Everett is the editor in chief of Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on X @Grayson270.
