Secretary of State Wes Allen leads former ALGOP Chairman John Wahl by 5 points in the Republican lieutenant governor runoff, according to a new independent poll released one week before the June 16 election.
The survey, conducted June 5-7 by Montgomery-based Strategy Management, found Allen at 39.23% and Wahl at 34.15%, with 26.62% undecided. The poll sampled 1,300 likely Republican runoff voters with a margin of error of 2.7 points.
Strategy Management says it conducted the survey independently and does not represent any candidate, committee, or outside group.
The same poll found Jared Hudson leading Barry Moore by 4 points in the U.S. Senate runoff.
Wahl finished first in the May 19 primary with 40.56% to Allen’s 38%, powered by President Trump’s endorsement. The runoff has already produced sharp exchanges, from fights over Trump loyalty to residency attacks at the Shelby County forum.
Allen’s lead comes despite Wahl carrying Trump’s endorsement in a sample where Trump’s total favorability exceeds 81%. Among self-identified Republicans, who make up the overwhelming majority of any GOP runoff electorate, the race tightens to a virtual tie. Allen leads that group 37.88% to 36.98%, a margin well inside the poll’s error range.
The age breakdown favors Allen across most of the electorate. He leads voters 35 to 44 by 26 points and voters 45 to 55 by 25 points. Wahl edges Allen among voters 55 to 64 by fewer than 2 points. Among voters 65 and older, the largest bloc in the sample at 57%, Allen leads by just over 2 points.
Geographically, Allen holds the broader map. He leads the Birmingham media market by nearly 11 points, Huntsville by 5, and Montgomery by a dominant 25 points. Wahl’s strength is concentrated in Mobile, where he leads by nearly 14, and the Dothan-Wiregrass region, where he leads by 3 on a small sample.
The ideological crosstabs reveal a divided Republican electorate. Self-described MAGA Republicans favor Wahl by over 26 points. Moderate Republicans break overwhelmingly for Allen by 32 points. Christian Conservatives, the largest ideological group in the sample, split evenly at 37.89% each.
Allen also holds a favorability edge. His net favorability stands at +40.31 points compared to Wahl’s +26.78 points. Wahl carries significantly higher unfavorables at 23.69% compared to Allen’s 14.38%.
The undecided share of 26.62% is the largest of any runoff race in the survey, leaving room for significant movement in the final week. The Republican lieutenant governor runoff is June 16.
Sawyer Knowles is a state and political reporter for Yellowhammer News. You may contact him at [email protected].
