Math continues to be a stubborn thing for some in politics. If polls are snapshots in time, if a series of polls create trends, and if real-world results matter, Republicans continue to be in bad shape for the 2018 midterms.
In Arizona, a Republican held onto a seat vacated by Rep. Trent Franks, after a sexual harassment allegation, by only five points. This was a safe Republican seat in a district that Trump won by 21.1 points.
This is an eight-point swing and this is not good for anyone in a district that was won by less than 10 points. Alabama may generally be immune from this national trend, but Martha Roby may not be:
|Margin of Victory
Why this matters: Roby’s 8.2 percent gap and her crowded field of GOP primary challengers, that includes a former congressman, make her vulnerable. Two years ago, no one would have thought there was a chance that a Democrat would win a statewide election in Alabama, then Doug Jones happened. Democrats are fired up. Republicans (outside of Paul Ryan) seem to be delusional. While some Republicans are talking up the positives of the win in Arizona, they seem to be ignoring the fact that Democrats also flipped a Republican state legislative seat in New York. That makes 40 flipped seats since Donald Trump took office. The “blue wave” is probably real, even if Alabama might not feel it, it might be coming.
— Democrats need to pick up 23 seats in order to take control of the House and install Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.
— The Cook Political Report lists 56 GOP-held seats and 6 Democrat seats as vulnerable versus six vulnerable Democratic seats.
— Congressional generic ballot gap has closed but Democrats still hold a 6.9 point lead.
— While the House looks good for Democrats, the Senate does not. Trump is polling better than Democrat Senate incumbents in 6 states.