Steve Flowers: Contest for new second congressional district is the race to watch

We are down to the final days of our 2024 Presidential Year. We go to the polls Tuesday, November 5, to elect the next President of the United States. 

We have no good statewide races in Alabama this year. All our important state offices are up for election in 2026. However, thanks to the federal courts, we have one doozy of a congressional race in the newly drawn Second Congressional District. It is not only the most interesting, important, entertaining contest in Alabama, it is one of the premier, pivotal congressional races in the nation. It may well decide which party has the majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The federal courts designed this district to elect a Democrat to Congress from the Heart of Dixie. They blatantly overruled the Alabama Legislature’s constitutional power to draw congressional lines for the state. The federal court hung their hat on the 1965 Voting Rights Act. 

The new seat is comprised of all of Montgomery County, as well as most of the more rural counties surrounding Montgomery including Macon, Lowndes, Bullock, Pike, Butler, Crenshaw, Barbour, and Russell. It continues through the Black Belt counties like an arrow towards Mobile and gathers most of the Black voters in Mobile. The district goes from the Georgia line to the Mississippi line. The lion’s share of the votes are in Montgomery and Mobile.

Although this gerrymandered district was created by the federal courts to implement a new Democratic Black district, as soon as the new lines were drawn, Republicans said, “not so fast” and, “over our dead bodies.” “You ain’t taking it without a fight.” As the beginning of the race began, there were 11 Democrats running in the Democratic Primary and nine Republicans seeking the GOP nomination. When the dust settled after the April primaries, two surprising candidates emerged from the 20 aspirants.

The two stellar horses that emerged are thoroughbreds. The Republicans nominated Caroleene Dobson, and the Democrat’s stallion is Shomari Figures. Voters may have subconsciously chosen two young combatants. Youth is an omnipotent advantage in Washington. Dobson and Figures are both in their 30’s and could build generational power under the seniority driven power structure in D.C. They are both sterling candidates who are genuinely representative, philosophically, of their respective party. Figures is a real liberal Democrat and Dobson is a real conservative Republican.

Shomari Figures has a Democratic pedigree a mile long. He grew up in Mobile as the son of two legendary state senators. His late father, Michael Figures, served 18 years as a leader in the Alabama Senate. His mother, Vivian Figures, followed Michael, Shomari’s father, in the same Senate seat when he died early. She has become an icon in Mobile and the state senate in her nearly three decades in the upper chamber. 

The Figures name has been at the forefront of Mobile politics for over four decades and it paid off in the Primary. Shomari received an amazing 92% of the vote in Mobile County. He also carried Montgomery County. It also did not hurt that he was able to outspend all 10 of his opponents combined with the bulk of his money coming from crypto currency groups. Figures has a law degree and has spent his entire career in Washington working for the Obama and Biden Administrations. 

Caroleene Dobson is a sensational, sterling, young Republican candidate. She is a homegrown Monroe County girl. Her ancestral home is in the heart of the new district, perfectly nestled between the two metro voting centers of Mobile and Montgomery. She received 88% of the vote in Monroe County. She outdistanced the other major GOP contender, former State Senator Dick Brewbaker, in the Republican Primary by an amazing 59% to 41% to capture the Republican nomination. 

Caroleene is a 37-year-old lawyer, mother, and wife. She is poised and exudes class and integrity. Her family has deep roots in the cattle industry in the state. She has been helped immensely by ALFA. She has worked hard and left no leaf unturned.

Regardless, the Republicans and Caroleene will need some help to secure this seat. A low voter turnout among Democratic voters may be the key to victory. This race is the ultimate purple, swing, congressional race in the south, and one of the most important races in the country. It could go either way.

See you next week.

Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at [email protected].