At first, the survey of voters in Baldwin County sounds like a classic “push poll,” which masquerades as a poll but actually is a sort of attack ad by delivering negative information about one of the candidates.
But the pollster calling voters recently provided negative information about both candidates running for a state Senate seat in District 32 — Baldwin County Commissioner Chris Elliott and dentist David Northcutt.
A representative from Davis Research, a California-based firm that conducted the poll, declined to comment.
Strategists for both camps said the survey appears to be not a push poll but a legitimate effort to find out how certain lines of attack are playing. But neither is taking credit for it.
“They are message testing to see just how bad that is for them,” said Jonathan Gray, who is running the commissioner’s campaign.
He said a typical push poll changes its negative messages and keeps hammering away.
“It just keeps going. It doesn’t stop,” he said. “This is message testing. That’s not us. And that only leaves one player.”
But Chris Brown, who is running Northcutt’s campaign, said, “I don’t know who Davis Research is.”
Elliott and Northcutt will face each other July 17 in a runoff for the Republican nomination after they emerged as the top two finishers in this month’s primary. They are vying for the seat currently held by Sen. Trip Pittman (R-Montrose), who is leaving office after serving two terms.
The district includes a majority of fast-growing Baldwin county and is reliably Republican, although next month’s winner will face Democrat Jason Fisher in the fall.
The race has been testy at times, and the Davis Research questions reflect that. After asking voters which candidate they prefer, the pollster then offers negative information and asks residents if that changes their view. About Northcutt, the pollster claims the candidate is not able to build coalitions and that a fellow dentist has criticized him for prioritizing making money over patient care.
About Elliott, the pollster tells voters that he has supported tax increases; that he has taken money from the Alabama Education Association and supports the Common Core education initiative; and that he pleaded guilty in 2016 for driving under the influence of alcohol and tried to use his influence as a county commissioner to get out of it.
“This race is going to get negative,” Gray said.
Gray said Elliott was forthright about the DUI — which occurred when he was coming home from a charitable fundraising event — from the start of his campaign, apologizing to voters for his lack of judgment.
“If he wanted to get out of it, no one would know about it,” he said. “We did all our polling months ago. I’m very comfortable with it. Chris has atoned for it.”
Gray also said Elliott has never voted for a tax increase. He only voted in favor of a referendum to give Baldwin voters an opportunity to raise property taxes for the school system — a proposal that voters rejected.
To Brown, the explanation rings hollow.
“If you look at David Northcutt’s mailings, he’s against taxes and won’t be beholden to special interests,” Brown said. “That’s all Chris Elliott seems to be advocating.”
The race has featured attack ads run against Northcutt by a north Alabama dentist. “Please DO NOT vote for Dr. David Northcutt for the Senate,” one ad reads.
That dentist, Dugald McMillan III, has suggested that Northcutt has violated privacy laws by sending campaign solicitations to dental clients.
The ads prompted Northcutt to file a complaint with Secretary of State John Merrill’s office, claiming that it is illegal because the dentist did not file a campaign finance report identifying his donors.
Brown said McMillan and others involved in the state dental association are disgruntled because Northcutt tried to change the group’s older practices and shake things up.
“That’s what David’s going to do if he goes to Montgomery,” he said.
@BrendanKKirby is a senior political reporter at LifeZette and author of “Wicked Mobile.”
