Discussion about what Tuesday night’s elections results in Kentucky and Virginia mean for 2020 is dominating the airwaves today.
As with most of these discussions in the national media, it usually goes like this:
If the night was good for Republicans, it means nothing.
If the night is good for Democrats, it is a sign of things to come.
That said, last night was bad for Republicans.
But let’s look at how elections have gone for Republicans since Trump was inaugurated.
2017:
The final results of the Virginia House of Delegates election will be a 50-50 split.
Prior to the election, Republicans held a 66-34 Majority.
The clerk remains a Republican. Democrats: no bathroom breaks or a vote might be called!
Follow @notlarrysabato for all your needs.
— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) November 13, 2017
The surprising result in Alabama gives Democrats a plausible path to take control of the Senate https://t.co/lb9JL3DkYo
— The New York Times (@nytimes) December 14, 2017
2018:
Yes, the 2018 midterms were a blue wave https://t.co/EeTXQV2uUX via @FiveThirtyEight: pic.twitter.com/qrcnAFEFIr
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) November 14, 2018
2019:
Republicans wake to a blue Virginia https://t.co/A5BF4LFhR4
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 6, 2019
Kentucky election result embarrasses Trump and worries many Republicans ahead of 2020 https://t.co/XQnEdwH0qH
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 6, 2019
Virginia has been lost to the Democrats. It could have been because of federal gerrymandering, Virginia trending blue or hangover from the incident in Charlottesville.
Now, these legislators could be in charge of redistricting congressional seats, which could be bad for Republicans for a long time.
As for Kentucky, the Republican narrative is that Matt Bevin sucked as a candidate. He was brash, picked fights he didn’t need to, had high unfavorable ratings and underperformed other Republicans.
Who does that sound like?
See also:
These are trends. They guarantee nothing, but they are bad signs.
I know, I know, a lot could happen between now and then. But America is all about a nationalized discourse right now. Russia and impeachment are dominating the headlines.
The only economic news we hear is about a trade war and doom-and-gloom wishful thinking about pending economic decline.
Even with all of that, Trump has great stuff happening right now. The economy is humming, record stock market, low unemployment and he still can’t save people down the ballot.
I know, I know, Trump wasn’t on the ballot. But he never had coattails — not even in 2016.
In 2016, Republicans lost two Senate seats, lost six House seats and Trump lost to Hillary Clinton in the popular vote by 2 million.
Trump also did worse than GOP Senate candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Arizona, Florida and even Utah.
This isn’t good for Republicans. In fact, it is really bad for 2020.
As I said, this could all change, but if it doesn’t, the GOP better be praying for a candidate worse than Hillary Clinton from the Democrats.
Dale Jackson is a contributing writer to Yellowhammer News and hosts a talk show from 7-11 am weekdays on WVNN
Don’t miss out! Subscribe today to have Alabama’s leading headlines delivered to your inbox.