Yellowhammer's Totally Flawless 2015 Oscar Predictions

Predicting the winners of the Academy Awards is a serious business. It takes a level of expertise that few have. Ok, a lot of people have the ability to pick random winners, but now is the time to weed out the amateurs and get to the challenge of getting these things correct.

The Grand Budapest Hotel and Birdman garnered the most nominations with nine apiece. Director Ava DuVernay and the actors from Selma were snubbed, and while American Sniper won at the box office and with moviegoers, the only thing it will win on Oscar night is a couple of awards for Sound Editing.

By the time the Oscars roll around, there have been dozens of award shows so only a few fields are still toss-ups, but the ones still up for debate are two of the top categories — Best Picture and Best Directing. They are far from locks, and will be unknown up until the presenter says, “And the Oscar goes to…”

The 87th annual Academy Awards hosted by Neil Patrick Harris airs on ABC on Sunday at 7 p.m. Central. Here is who will win each category.

BEST PICTURE

American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

For the majority of awards season, Boyhood has been the darling. It isn’t the most technically challenging film or the best acted, but the sheer undertaking of filming a movie two weeks at a time for 12 years is incredible. Birdman, on the other hand, has been surging of late, gathering the guild awards and gaining support from Hollywood types who enjoyed the risk of the film, while also devouring anything that comments on the industry itself.

Of the major categories, this — along with best director — is the closest call. The acting awards have been locked up for months now, but this is a two-horse race between Boyhood and Birdman. I thought the award would go to the literal coming-of-age the film that began filming in 2002, but Birdman has overtaken it.

Winner: Birdman

DIRECTING

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman, Richard Linklater, Boyhood, Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher, Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Giving an award to a director other than the one who directed the Best Picture used to be a rarity. Per Grantland’s Mark Harris, a split between picture and director on only occurred twice between 1973 and 1997, but has happened six times in the last 16 years. If a film wins Best Picture, doesn’t it make sense that the person who directed it also wins?

With that said, this year, we won’t have another split. Iñárritu won the Director’s Guild Award, which is often a direct indication of the Oscar winner, and should take home the trophy tonight.

His style in the film is inventive and eccentric and the now-famous 15-minute tracking shots without cuts put him ahead of Linklater from a technical and artistic standpoint.

Winner: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman

ACTOR – in a Leading Role

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher, Bradley Cooper, American Sniper, Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game, Michael Keaton, Birdman, Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

This award has been Eddie Redmayne’s to lose since award season got going. The physical transformation that he went through to play the continuously deteriorating Stephen Hawking gives him the edge over Cumberbatch, Keaton and Cooper.

Winner: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

ACTRESS – in a Leading Role

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night, Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything, Julianne Moore, Still Alice, Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl, Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Like Redmayne, Julianne Moore goes through a transformation herself, playing a woman who is diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer’s Disease in Still Alice. Like Cate Blanchett’s performance in Blue Jasmine and award season last year, Moore was never about to lose this award.

Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

ACTOR – in a Supporting Role

Robert Duvall, The Judge, Ethan Hawke, Boyhood, Edward Norton, Birdman, Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher, J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

J.K. Simmons has made a career of being in many things, but never really featuring heavily in them. Whether he’s the police chief in The Closer or J. Jonah Jameson in the Tobey Maguire’s editions of Spiderman, Simmons has always been featured as a character actor but rarely the star. In Whiplash, he finally gets to show his full range as a maniacal drum teacher who abuses his student to master his instrument. Simmons has already won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA for this performance, and an Oscar is on its way.

Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

ACTRESS – in a Supporting Role

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood, Laura Dern, Wild, Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game, Emma Stone, Birdman, Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

The supporting actress category this year is the landing place for the annual “Meryl Streep was in a movie so let’s nominate her for something.” But with her 12-year performance, playing the main boy’s mother in Boyhood, aging with the film itself, Patricia Arquette has this trophy locked up.

Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Song of the Sea, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

After the heartbreaking exclusion of the Lego Movie, this award lost some meaning to many people. But with this grouping of nominees, the usually strong Disney/Pixar entry — Big Hero 6 — will fall to the normally snubbed DreamWorks entry, How to Train Your Dragon 2.

Winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2

And now for the more minor and explanation-less categories in rapid fire.

WRITING – Adapted Screenplay

American Sniper, The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

Winner: Whiplash

WRITING – Original Screenplay

Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Ida, Mr. Turner, Unbroken

Winner: Birdman

COSTUME DESIGN

The Grand Budapest Hotel, Inherent Vice, Into the Woods, Maleficent, Mr. Turner

Winner:The Grand Budapest Hotel

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

CitizenFour, Finding Vivian Maier, Last Days in Vietnam, The Salt of the Earth, Virunga

Winner: CitizenFour

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, Joanna, Our Curse, The Reaper (La Parka), White Earth

Winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

FILM EDITING

American Sniper, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Whiplash

Winner: Boyhood

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ida, Leviathan, Tangerines, Timbuktu, Wild Tales

Winner: Ida

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Guardians of the Galaxy

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

MUSIC – Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game, Hans Zimmer, Interstellar, Gary Yershon, Mr. Turner, Jóhann Jóhannsson, The Theory of Everything

Winner: Jóhann Jóhannsson, The Theory of Everything

MUSIC – Original Song

“Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie, “Glory” from Selma, “Grateful” from Beyond the Lights, “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me, “Lost Stars” from Begin Again

Winner: “Glory” from Selma

PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, Into the Woods, Mr. Turner

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

SHORT FILM – Animated

The Bigger Picture, The Dam Keeper, Feast, Me and My Moulton, A Single Life

Winner: Feast

SHORT FILM – Live Action

Aya, Boogaloo and Graham, Butter Lamp (La Lampe au Beurre de Yak), Parvaneh, The Phone Call

Winner: The Phone Call

SOUND EDITING

American Sniper, Birdman, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Interstellar, Unbroken