What's next for Alabama’s delegation after redistricting?

Last week, we learned that Alabama’s congressional map will be different in 2024.

A federally appointed special master submitted three maps of what that might look like on the same day the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the State of Alabama’s request to reinstate the maps drawn by the state Legislature during a July special session.

Finality on the federally imposed district lines is tentatively to be decided by the three-judge panel Tuesday.

It’s now possible the state’s federal delegation will undergo a shake up – at least in one district.

At Yellowhammer News, we’re taking stock of who might be in, and who might be out.

Seventh Congressional District

Rep. Terri Sewell

High probability of running again

If Sewell, who has represented the district since 2012, wants to keep her seat, it’s likely hers. Between the $3 million in her campaign war chest, the influence she’s accrued with the national Democratic Party, and the energy she continually brings to the job, it’s tough to see anyone making a serious run against her.

State Sen. Bobby Singleton

Medium probability of running

Singleton announced an exploratory committee for District 7 the same day the special master’s maps were released. His constituency in the State Senate, which includes much of the Black Belt, has kept him working for them in Montgomery since 2006. So, it’s believable he’d make a compelling case to do the same in Washington. But is Singleton simply trying to make headlines? It’s unclear now. If Sewell officially jumps in, we might hear less about federal aspirations from Singleton.

Second Congressional District

Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed

High probability of running

It seems likely Reed will seek the Second Congressional District post after a decisive reelection victory into a second term as mayor of Montgomery. He enjoys strong political capital and can lock down the Democratic primary. Reed would instantly excite folks in D.C. He’s been building establishment Democrat connections for many years and if Reed is going to make it to D.C., the time is now. The prodigy of his father, Joe Reed, would virtually clear the field on the Democratic side. If you’re him, why not take a shot?

Former State Sen. Dick Brewbaker

Medium probability of running

Brewbaker has been rumored as a possible candidate lately – which tells us he’s strongly considering jumping back into politics. The new Second District leans heavily Democratic, but not as heavily as the Seventh District. The court’s analysis shows that it leans roughly +10 Democrat, no matter which map is drawn. It’s possible for a moderate Republican to win the seat. But would Brewbaker position himself as a moderate? Could a moderate candidate win this district? Either way, Brewbaker has the name ID to be a serious candidate. Keep an eye out.

Montgomery County Commissioner Ronda Walker

Medium probability of running

Walker announced on Facebook that she’s not running for another term. Speculation is that she’s gearing up for a run for Congress. Is she a Republican who could win in a +10-Democrat district? Her popularity in Montgomery is a major advantage.

Lyndy Blanchard

Medium probability of running

Blanchard could self-fund and have a strong chance to win the Republican nomination. But, given her strong Trump stance, she might have trouble moderating against a Democrat. Money talks – being able to self-fund gives anyone a shot.

PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh

Low probability of running

Could Cavanaugh be the River Region Republican who could beat Steven Reed? Possibly. Sky-high name ID, plus she would instantly keep others out of the Republican primary. But why gamble on a +10 Democratic district if you’re her.

First Congressional District

Rep. Barry Moore

Medium probability of running

Moore said Thursday he hasn’t made a decision yet, which is likely driven partially by uncertainty about final district lines, and a hesitance to primary Rep. Jerry Carl, who is set to become Moore’s new congressman under the proposed maps. He told Yaffee, “We really love the people, love the constituents, and appreciate the state that we serve in … We’re praying through this, and that’s not just tongue and cheek, we really seek the Lord in what we do. We don’t have a map until October 4th honestly, and so we’ve got some time and we’ll take our time in making a decision.”