Tommy Tuberville enters the Alabama governor’s general election race as a heavy favorite over former U.S. Senator Doug Jones, with prediction markets on both Polymarket and Kalshi giving Tuberville 92% odds of winning in November, compared to just 8% for Jones.

Polymarket and Kalshi are prediction market platforms where users wager real money on political outcomes, making their odds a real-time reflection of where informed bettors see a race heading.

The numbers are no surprise in a state that has become one of the most reliably Republican in the country.

President Trump carried Alabama by 30 points in 2024, and Tuberville (R-Auburn) steamrolled the Republican primary field Tuesday night with 85.48% of the vote, signaling a unified party heading into November.

The two candidates have faced each other before. Tuberville defeated Jones in the 2020 U.S. Senate race 60.10% to 39.74%, flipping the seat Jones had held since winning a 2017 special election against Roy Moore in what was widely considered an outlier result driven by unique circumstances.

Jones remains the last Democrat to win a statewide election in Alabama. The November 3 general election will test how competitive he can make it.

Sawyer Knowles is a capitol reporter for Yellowhammer News. You may contact him at [email protected].