In 2018, Republicans in the United States Senate fared well because of the make-up of the map of seats in play that election cycle.
But, 2020 could be different.
The Washingon Post’s “The Fix” columnist Amber Phillips has written a piece pointing out the top 10 seats that could flip, naming seven of those seats at risk of flipping as Republican seats.
The number one at-risk seat is our own junior Senator Doug Jones (D-AL), meaning even this author accepts Jones’ time is running out.
Unfortunately, everyone insists on viewing this through the Roy Moore-lense.
The framing by “The Fix” seems a bit off.
Phillips shares the Democrat wishful thinking and silliness that the allegations against Moore were not the reason he lost, claiming, “Democrats argue Jones didn’t win because of Moore, but rather that he put together strong coalition largely of African American voters.”
That, of course, is garbage.
Republicans stayed home, which is how Moore lost.
2017:
| U.S. Senate, Alabama general election, December 12, 2017 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democrat |  Doug Jones |
50% | 673,896 | |
| Republican | Roy Moore | 48.3% | 651,972 | |
| Independent | Write-in | 1.7% | 22,852 | |
| Total Votes | 1,348,720 | |||
| Source: Alabama Secretary of State | ||||
2018:
| Governor, Alabama general election, November 6, 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Kay Ivey |
59.5% | 1,022,457 | |
| Democrat | Walt Maddox | 40.4% | 694,495 | |
| Independent | Write-in | 0.2% | 2,637 | |
| Total Votes | 1,719,589 | |||
| Source: Alabama Secretary of State | ||||
The math is infallible. Turnout in statewide races is a pretty clear indication of what happened.
Republicans rejected Roy Moore and stayed home because he was the only thing on the ballot.
The Republican turnout for now-President Donald Trump is Alabama in 2016 was much bigger than both 2017 and 2018. Those voters will be back in 2020.
| U.S. presidential election, Alabama, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine | 34.4% | 729,547 | 0 | |
| Republican | Donald Trump/Mike Pence |
62.1% | 1,318,255 | 9 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 2.1% | 44,467 | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka | 0.4% | 9,391 | 0 | |
| Other | Write-in votes | 1% | 21,712 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 2,123,372 | 9 | |||
| Source: Alabama Secretary of State | |||||
Whether Roy Moore is on the ballot or not, Jones has no chance of keeping his seat.
Additionally, some of the seats mentioned here at play for Republicans to lose include seats in Georgia and Texas, making it seem unlikely Republicans lose a seat. The Washington Post also lists longtime Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who has held onto her red seat in an increasingly blue state.
If these are some of the top 10 seats that are going to flip, don’t expect many seats to flip.
Dale Jackson is a contributing writer to Yellowhammer News and hosts a talk show from 7-11 am weekdays on WVNN.
