The Washington Post says Doug Jones’ Senate seat is the most likely to flip

In 2018, Republicans in the United States Senate fared well because of the make-up of the map of seats in play that election cycle.

But, 2020 could be different.

The Washingon Post’s “The Fix” columnist Amber Phillips has written a piece pointing out the top 10 seats that could flip, naming seven of those seats at risk of flipping as Republican seats.

The number one at-risk seat is our own junior Senator Doug Jones (D-AL), meaning even this author accepts Jones’ time is running out.

Unfortunately, everyone insists on viewing this through the Roy Moore-lense.

The framing by “The Fix” seems a bit off.

Phillips shares the Democrat wishful thinking and silliness that the allegations against Moore were not the reason he lost, claiming, “Democrats argue Jones didn’t win because of Moore, but rather that he put together strong coalition largely of African American voters.”

That, of course, is garbage.

Republicans stayed home, which is how Moore lost.

2017:

U.S. Senate, Alabama general election, December 12, 2017
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democrat	Doug Jones	50%	673,896
	Republican	Roy Moore	48.3%	651,972
	Independent	Write-in	1.7%	22,852
Total Votes				1,348,720
Source: Alabama Secretary of State

2018:

Governor, Alabama general election, November 6, 2018
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Kay Ivey	59.5%	1,022,457
	Democrat	Walt Maddox	40.4%	694,495
	Independent	Write-in	0.2%	2,637
Total Votes				1,719,589
Source: Alabama Secretary of State

The math is infallible. Turnout in statewide races is a pretty clear indication of what happened.

Republicans rejected Roy Moore and stayed home because he was the only thing on the ballot.

The Republican turnout for now-President Donald Trump is Alabama in 2016 was much bigger than both 2017 and 2018. Those voters will be back in 2020.

U.S. presidential election, Alabama, 2016
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine	34.4%	729,547	0
	Republican	Donald Trump/Mike Pence	62.1%	1,318,255	9
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Bill Weld	2.1%	44,467	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka	0.4%	9,391	0
	Other	Write-in votes	1%	21,712	0
Total Votes				2,123,372	9
Source: Alabama Secretary of State

Whether Roy Moore is on the ballot or not, Jones has no chance of keeping his seat.

Additionally, some of the seats mentioned here at play for Republicans to lose include seats in Georgia and Texas, making it seem unlikely Republicans lose a seat. The Washington Post also lists longtime Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who has held onto her red seat in an increasingly blue state.

If these are some of the top 10 seats that are going to flip, don’t expect many seats to flip.

Dale Jackson is a contributing writer to Yellowhammer News and hosts a talk show from 7-11 am weekdays on WVNN.