The lay of the land heading into 2014 Alabama House and Senate races

2010 was a historic year in Alabama politics. 136 consecutive years of Democratic control in the Alabama legislature came to an end as Republicans won supermajorities in both the House and Senate. Since then, both Republicans and Democrats have started adapting to the new lay of the land, as have lobbyists, trade associations and other interest groups in Montgomery.

Former Rep. Seth Hammett, D-Andalusia, who was Speaker of the Alabama House from 1999-2010, needed to build a coalition to pass legislation. He would either get white Democrats and the Democratic Black Caucus to vote together to advance a bill, or he would get white Democrats and Republicans to team up. House Speaker Mike Hubbard, R-Auburn, has not had to do much coalition building because Republicans now have the numbers to pretty much pass whatever they want. Things have been slightly more fractured in the Senate on rare occasions, but it is difficult for Democrats to mount and effective defense in either chamber at this point.

Outside groups that have historically aligned with Democrats have even had to change their tune. For instance, as the Montgomery Advertiser’s Bryan Lyman astutely noted over the weekend, the trial lawyers’ association donated 94 percent of its money to Democrats during the 2010 election cycle (roughly $2 million), but has completely changed course sense then. Over 80 percent of their legislative contributions in 2013 and so far in 2014 went to Republicans.

But one historically left-leaning group in Montgomery that has not shifted at all is the Alabama Education Association (AEA). Rather than moderating its positions and trying to work with Republicans, the AEA has doubled down on backing Democrats. They are also working to play a larger role in GOP primaries by recruiting candidates to take on incumbent Republicans and to fill open seats. Some insiders expect the AEA to spend $7-10 million in 2014 to dilute the GOP majorities.

The AEA has been fairly successful in Republican special elections since 2010, so they will try to build on that by targeting the open House and Senate seats this year. In addition to giving directly to candidates, they have also launched an affiliated group called Alabama Values Education. Expect them to run millions of dollars in ads under that banner this cycle as well.

The AEA is basically on an island by itself — one of the last remaining remnants of a time to which most Alabamians do not want to return. However, in addition to its unmatched financial resources, the AEA also now has another advantage that Republicans used in their favor in 2010 — a “throw the bums out” atmosphere. The anti-incumbent sentiment of the current electorate is not necessarily aimed at the Alabama legislature, but is rather the result of the pint up frustration that voters across the country feel toward elected officials in general from both parties. The AEA is hoping to use that to their advantage, especially among Tea Party groups, whose ranks the AEA has maneuvered to infiltrate with political operatives.

On the Republican side of the aisle, the Business Council, Forestry Association, Farmers Federation, Realtors Association, Trial Lawyers Association, Trucking Association and 2014 PAC will be some of the key players. A similar coalition of groups, with the exception of the trial lawyers, helped usher in the Republican majority in 2010. PACs controlled by lobbying powerhouses like Fine Geddie & Associates, former Lt. Gov. Steve Windom, and Swatek Azbell Howe and Ross will also be significant sources of funds for incumbent legislators of both parties.

But as important as financial resources are to winning elections, grassroots organizations will also play a role in legislative races this year.

Groups like the Rainy Day Patriots and Wetumpka Tea Party have built up trust among conservative voters in certain areas of the state, and will have an opportunity to turn their influence into votes if they are able to organize themselves effectively. The Wetumpka Tea Party showed their ability to do exactly that by making their home county (Elmore) one of the only areas of the state to vote down Amendment 1 in 2012, which authorized the state to borrow $437 million from the Alabama Trust Fund to prevent cuts to state services. Their founding president, Becky Gerritson, recently announced that she is moving to Texas, so it will be worth watching to see if that impacts their ability to organize.

2014 PAC, which is helmed by former Gov. Bob Riley, has also begun putting field operatives in some parts of the state to help organize at the grassroots level. In addition to vast financial resources, Republican candidates who ran for public office for the first time in 2010 were also given access to campaign consultants and field staffers who helped them run their campaigns. There will likely be some growing pains during this cycle as some first-term incumbent Republicans have to take on a much greater role in their own campaigns than they did in 2010.

Interestingly, the actual state parties probably won’t play a very significant role in 2014 legislative races. The Democrats are in shambles, with no ability to raise money and poor candidates (see: Griffith, Parker). The ALGOP has also struggled to raise money over the last couple of years and has experienced a good bit turnover in some of their top political staff positions.

Here’s the bottom line: everyone mentioned above will be fighting over a relatively small number of seats in the legislature. Most incumbents from both parties are in pretty good shape. There are 12 open seats in the House that the AEA will try to gain control of. But the Senate is what will really be worth watching. There are currently 23 Republicans in the Senate. It takes 21 senators to invoke cloture, which basically means Republicans can end debate and pass any bill they want, even if Democrats are filibustering. If the AEA could just carve off three seats they could destroy Republicans’ filibuster-proof majority and grind the Senate to a halt.

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