A successful and unified Republican National Convention in combination with President Joe Biden’s train wreck after train wreck, and less than a week removed from the assassination attempt on the official GOP nominee for president Donald Trump — an excitement is building around the competitive election in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District.
The newly-drawn district was imposed by federal courts following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling last year that found Alabama must draw a majority-Black district in line with the state’s population numbers.
Republican Caroleene Dobson faces Democrat Shomari Figures in a district that shows a mixed bag of historic trends and recent polling. As currently drawn, in 2020, the district elected Joe Biden by a 12-point margin. But polling conducted before Biden’s debate disaster and Trump’s assassination attempt show Biden and Trump were virtually tied among voters in the district.
Statewide polling from the Alabama Republican Party also recently indicated that 18% of Black voters said they were planning to vote for Donald Trump, more than double the historic average.
Last week, Dobson reported she out-raised Figures in the second quarter of 2024, $527,000 to Figures’ $478,379. Since the start of the campaign, Dobson has also out-spent Figures by a three to one margin.
This week, Dobson rode a red wave of positive indicators for downballot Republican candidates to the Republican National Convention where she highlighted endorsements from U.S. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and U.S. Senator Katie Britt (R-Montgomery), made routine media appearances, and visited with top party officials and donors.
Richard Hudson, Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee told Punchbowl News that Republicans have a good chance of winning Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District. In an indication of the opportunity that greets Dobson as she returns to the state this week, Hudson said that talk of a “guaranteed” Democratic pickup is over.
“They drew it for a Democrat, but they got a fairly weak Democrat,” Hudson said of Shomari Figures. “Caroleene Dobson’s really impressive.”
“If only a few” of the district’s Black voters back Dobson, Hudson said, then Republicans can be competitive, Punchbowl reports.
In the weeks since his nightmare debate performance, Figures has been silent on the mounting challenges to Joe Biden’s presidency and candidacy.
Grayson Everett is the state and political editor for Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on X @Grayson270
