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NRCC polling shows Biden and Trump tied in AL-02, Dobson has ‘clear path to victory’

New polling conducted by research firm Public Opinion Strategies, commissioned jointly by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and Caroleene Dobson for Congress show that President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are in a statistical tie in Alabama’s newly-drawn 2nd Congressional District, with voters favoring Republicans on pocketbook issues and public safety concerns by an overwhelming margin.

According to the survey: Joe Biden and Donald Trump are virtually tied at 46%-45%. Consistent with nationwide trends, Biden’s approval by AL-02 Black voters has taken a massive hit, dropping 22 points from 2020. The economy, inflation, and crime rank as voters’ top issues, and once voters learn about both Dobson and Figures’ background and issue positions, Dobson takes a 48%-43% lead.

The survey probed President Biden’s support among African American voters in a district redrawn by federal court order with a Black Voting Age Population (BVAP) of 48.7%. According to the poll, Biden’s support among African Americans has dropped significantly. In the 2020 election, African American voters reported supporting Biden by a 73-point margin, but in the 2024 rematch, that margin shrinks to 51 points, representing an over 20-point drop. 

Voters polled are less enthusiastic about the election, with nearly half (49%) expressing less enthusiasm compared to 43% who are more enthusiastic. This contrasts with white voters, where 60% report being more enthusiastic and only 29% less enthusiastic. 

RELATED: Shomari Figures announces Planned Parenthood, Democratic endorsements in ‘mission critical’ election

“Small changes in the racial makeup of the electorate could have major implications here. A two-point drop in the African American share would put Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden in the Presidential race,” the report reads. 

Economic issues are front and center for voters in the 2nd District. A majority of voters rate the current state of the economy as poor and continue to struggle with high prices. Half of the voters (50%) rate the economy as poor, while just 19% rate it as excellent or good. A solid majority (63%) disagreed when asked if the worst of inflation is behind us.

According to the poll, most voters trust Trump and the GOP over Biden and the Democrats to address these issues. When presented with information and messaging about Caroleene Dobson, she took the lead among poll respondents in a 48%-43% lead over Figures.

Last month, Figures warned against complacency among Democrat voters. “People need to know that this is a race. This is not a coronation,” Figures said.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) recently pledged to help Figures financially, an early indicator that it will be a highly competitive race that’s now gaining attention from both national Democrats and Republicans.

Grayson Everett is the state and political editor for Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @Grayson270

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