James Spann: Dangerous severe weather threat ahead for Alabama

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO OUTBREAK AHEAD: Most of Alabama will be dry, mild, and breezy today, but a dangerous outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is expected across a large area beginning late tonight. Alabamians will need to pay very close attention to the weather tonight through Saturday night as a dynamic storm system will bring two rounds of severe thunderstorms.

Round one

The broad window for the first round of severe thunderstorms will come from around 11 tonight through 8 a.m. Saturday.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has defined an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for much of west Alabama for this event, with a slight risk (level 2) as far east and south as Scottsboro, Prattville, and Jackson.
The highest risk of severe storms with round one will be over the western half of the state, mainly along and west of I-65. The severe threat is much lower over the eastern counties, where the air will be more stable.
Where storms develop, they will be capable of producing hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are possible as well, mainly over west Alabama.

Round two

This is the main event; the window is from noon Saturday through 3 a.m. Sunday.
A moderate risk (level 4 of 5) covers most of Alabama in the SPC’s outlook.
Storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A few violent, long-track tornadoes are possible.

Key messages

We don’t use strong wording often, but in this case, it is needed. The threat is real, and the event poses a dangerous situation for all of Alabama and most of the southern U.S. The goal is no loss of life and no serious injuries; we all have a big role to play.
It is critical that you hear warnings. An outdoor siren is never, ever a primary way of hearing warnings. The “siren mentality” has killed more people than anything else during tornado events in Alabama. The baseline for every home and business is a NOAA Weather Radio; unfortunately, many retailers have sold out of them due to the high demand this week. On your phone, be sure emergency alerts are enabled in notification settings; this is the tone you hear for tornado warnings and amber alerts. Have the free ABC 33/40 weather app installed. Turn the sleep/do not disturb modes off for the weekend so you will receive notifications at night.
In your safe place, have helmets for everyone, including adults. Most serious injuries in tornadoes involve blunt-force trauma above the shoulders. Wearing hard shoes is also a good idea. Have a portable air horn for everyone; they can alert first responders to your location if you are injured.
If you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter or a business open 24/7 that can serve as a shelter. Have transportation arranged so you can get there quickly. You cannot stay in a mobile home if you are in a tornado warning polygon.
A car is a death trap during a tornado. If you are driving and get a tornado warning notification, pull off as quickly as possible and go into a gas station, fast food restaurant, or any other business that can serve as a shelter.
You can be a hero. If you are reading this, you pay attention to the weather. Let friends and family members today know this is a dangerous threat. During the event, if you have a friend or loved one in a tornado warning polygon, call or text them to let them know of the immediate danger. You can play a huge role in saving lives.
Subscribe to the James Spann and ABC 33/40 YouTube channels so you can watch our live coverage. During the event itself, all of my attention is focused on the live coverage. We are thankful for the out-of-state YouTubers who do long-form severe weather coverage, but to be truly successful in reaching people and communicating warnings in high-end severe weather events like this, you have to understand the people, culture, geography, and microclimate of the region affected.
We don’t share any of this to scare people. But strong wording is necessary on occasion, and this is one of those times. Get the warnings, have a good plan, and we’ll get through this together.

The sky will clear on Sunday, but a few isolated showers are possible during the afternoon as the upper trough passes through.

NEXT WEEK: Most of the week will be dry, but a cold front will bring a band of showers and storms into the state late Wednesday and Wednesday night. For now, it doesn’t look like a major severe-weather threat.