In the highly-contested U.S. Senate runoff, Jared Hudson leads Barry Moore 48.7% to 39.2%, with 12.1% of likely runoff voters still firmly undecided. Given it’s Hudson’s first appearance on the ballot, a 9.5 point lead is significant. While Moore is commanding most of the Trump-aligned section of the primary electorate, Hudson has consolidated wide support across the candidates who did not advance.
“Jared Hudson is in the driver’s seat. He’s consolidated the field, and he’s built something Barry Moore hasn’t — a connection that runs across the board with the voters who are looking for an outsider to go solve problems and be their champion, said Alabama Poll founder Michael Lowry. “That’s who they see in Hudson. Moore’s path runs through a heavy, sustained Trump push between now and June 16th. Short of that, I don’t see what moves these numbers.”
As for the Lieutenant Governor race, things are getting very interesting there. Wes Allen leads the Trump-endorsed John Wahl 41.9% to 38.4% overall, but among voters who say they will definitely vote, Wahl leads 42.5% to 40.0%, and he also leads among the most frequent primary voters.
“This is the race I’d watch closest,” Lowry said. “Wes Allen leads the headline number, but a runoff isn’t decided by everyone — it’s decided by the people who actually show up. Among the highest-propensity voters, the ones who turn out in every primary, John Wahl already leads, and that’s his coalition in a low-turnout June. The topline says Allen; the voters most likely to cast a ballot say Wahl. I’ll go with the voters who show up and that’s still to be determined.”
When it comes to the Attorney General race, things are not very close there at all at the moment, with Katherine Robertson leading Jay Mitchell 49.1% to 31.2%, the largest margin of any race on the runoff ballot at 17.9 points. With almost 20% still undecided, Mitchell does have a path, but the margin of error for the amount of voters he needs there is next to nothing.
“Katherine Robertson is in a commanding position,” said Lowry. “She’s running right at her favorability, which means the voters who like her have already committed — there’s no soft support left to chip away. Jay Mitchell has a pathway to make this competitive and maybe even win it, but it’s the width of a hair. It runs through the voters who like him but haven’t committed, and he’d have to consolidate almost all of them while giving people a reason to take a second look at Robertson. It’s possible. It’s just not likely on these numbers.”
Fascinatingly, the Commissioner of Agriculture is being polled as a genuine toss-up between Corey Hill — who has 33.1% — and Christina Woerner McInnis — who has 27.3% — with a staggering near 40% of the voters still undecided at this point.
“With four in ten voters still undecided in a two-person race, this one comes down to who can make their case and become known to voters in the next two weeks,” Lowry said. “Corey Hill leads today, but there’s more than enough room for this to break in either direction. It’s the most volatile race on the ballot.”
Michael Brauner is a Senior Sports Analyst and Contributing Writer for Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @MBraunerWNSP and hear him every weekday morning from 6 to 9 a.m. on “The Opening Kickoff” on WNSP-FM 105.5, available free online.
