According to Rasmussen Reports, Democrats have regained their lead on a generic congressional ballot after Republicans led the poll for three consecutive weeks beginning the last week of June.
Rasmussen’s national telephone survey of 3,500 likely voters showed that “40% of likely U.S. voters would vote for the Democrat in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Republican instead.”
Of the 29 weeks that have passed so far in 2013, Democrats have led the generic Congressional ballot poll 22 times. Republicans have led the poll five times, including the past three weeks, and the two parties have tied twice.
In spite of the close race on the generic ballot nationally, most congressional races are still not competitive in the general election because of the way the district lines are drawn.
“The most striking House statistic in the last 15 years may be the decline of competitive districts,” The Cook Political Report noted earlier this year. Cook’s Partisan Voter Index scores the political leanings of each district around the country. “In 1998, our Partisan Voter Index scored 164 districts between D+5 and R+5,” Cook said. “After the 2012 election, there are only 90 districts between D+5 and R+5 – less than a quarter of the House and a 45 percent decline since 1998.”
Alabama’s 6th Congressional District was the most Republican District in the country during the 2008 and 2010 election cycles (R+29) but it has since been overtaken by Texas’ 13th District.
Alabama’s First Congressional District seat is currently up for grabs in a special election, and all of the action is in the Republican primary. The First District is rated R+15 by Cook. That, however, makes it the closest thing Alabama has to a “swing” district.
Here’s how Cook rates all of Alabama’s congressional districts.
AL01 – R+15
AL02 – R+17
AL03 – R+16
AL04 – R+28
AL05 – R+17
AL06 – R+28
AL07 – D+20
Two other polls also caught my attention this morning. An ABC News / Washington Post poll lays out support for the Zimmerman verdict based on Party affiliation (graph below), and a Gallup poll shows President Obama’s average approval rating falling for the second straight quarter. The president’s Gallup approval rating averaged just 47.9% during his 18th quarter in office, which ran between April 20 and June 19. Over 40,000 people were polled by Gallup over that time frame.
What else is going on?
1. OFA-Alabama preps for ‘Action August’ campaign
2. Stand your ground laws under attack nationally as a result of Zimmerman
3. Shelby advocates for Huntsville-based space program, asks for more accountability
4. Bentley picks up Forestry Association endorsement
5. Power points, prayer controversy & protestors: just another day at the PSC
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