FiveThirtyEight.com published a useful article this morning compiling seven different polls for today’s Republican primary for the U.S. Senate.
The compilation represented polls from the past ten days, the results of which are listed below. At the bottom of the list, the all seven polls are averaged.
The most interesting twist in the data are the two most recent polls taken in the past few days. Saturday’s Emerson College poll showed Luther Strange ahead with 32%, Roy Moore in a close second with 29% and Mo Brooks in third with 15%. Sunday’s Trafalgar survey, however, shows Moore at 38% (his highest number in any poll to date), with Strange at 24% and Brooks at 17%.
Any way you slice it, the sum of these polls seem to suggest that Roy Moore and Luther Strange will be in a run-off for the Republican nominee to be decided on September 26th. As Alabama Republicans head to the voting booths throughout the afternoon and into the evening, it will be interesting to see how accurate these surveys are in the final analysis, after the polls close at 7:00 p.m.
Below is a list of the polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight.com:
Date POLLSTER Brooks Moore Strange
Aug. 13 Trafalgar Group 17% 38% 24%
Aug. 12 Emerson College 15 29 32
Aug. 10 Trafalgar Group 20 35 23
Aug. 9 Cygnal/L2 18 31 23
Aug. 9 Strategy Research 19 35 29
Aug. 7 JMC Analytics 20 32 24
Aug. 3 Red Racing Horses 18 31 29
Average 18 33 26
Editor’s Note: Yellowhammer has been running our own poll since yesterday afteernoon, the results of which we will publish this afternoon when it’s complete.