Alabama Winners & Losers Post-Election Day

Winners:

1. Governor Bentley

The Governor went all-in for Amendment 2 and stayed way out in front of its PR effort. The “jobs amendment,” as they were referring to it, passes on the heels of the Governor’s victory on Sept. 18 with Amendment 1.

The thing to watch longterm is whether or not any damage has been done with the conservative base who were adamantly opposed to Amendment 1 and conflicted over Amendment 2. Post-Sept. 18 polling suggests that the Gov. remains well positioned to take on any potential challenges from the right.

2. Republicans

With Twinkle Cavanaugh’s convincing victory over Lucy Baxley, Republicans finally control every statewide elected office in Alabama. All 6 Republican congressional candidates won without any serious opposition.

3. Tea Partiers/grassroots conservatives

In spite of being outspent by massive margins, and Romney underperforming in Alabama, grassroots conservatives were still able to propel Roy Moore back into office. Ballot initiatives remain a challenge for grassroots conservatives, as illustrated by Amendment 4. On ballot initiatives, the advantage still far-and-away favors the side with the money to run a good air game.

4. Alabama Education Association (AEA)

AEA only really engaged on Amendment 4 — and they won a resounding victory (61-39). They ran a typical AEA campaign: fear mongering, faux-concern for education, deception and outright lies. However, it is clear that conservatives in Alabama still have some work to do to create a political machine that can go toe-to-toe with AEA on ballot initiatives.

The old AEA machine also propelled former AEA #2 Joe Reed’s son, Steven Reed, into the office of Montgomery County Probate Judge over longtime incumbent Republican Reese McKinney.

5. Rep. Jeremy Oden

With Twinkle Cavanaugh becoming PSC President, her current PSC seat needs to be filled by a Governor’s appointee. Barring something completely unforeseen, Oden will be the appointee. Insider’s say he’s already been considering possible staffers.

Losers:

1. Democrats:

Democrats being the night’s big losers is pretty obvious, but the Bob Vance campaign really sums it up. They handpicked their candidate, spent almost $2 million, and still got beat about 52-48 against a candidate who has extremely high name ID but lacks the fundraiser chops of most statewide candidates. Mark Kennedy is the last man hanging onto the almost-fully-submerged Titanic. Looking toward 2014 and beyond, all the action will be in Republican primaries.

2. Alabama’s image:

Amendment 4’s failure will certainly give media outlets worldwide another opportunity to shoot at Alabama for our racially-charged past. Neighboring states will also continue to use this as ammo against us in tough industrial recruitment battles.