Alabama Public Service Commission — Place 2
Candidates:
Incumbent — Terry Dunn
Challengers — Jonathan Barbee, Chip Beeker, Philip Brown
Background:
Alabama Public Service Commission races rarely make it into the headlines, but after incumbent Republican Terry Dunn sided with environmental groups on a series of votes at the PSC, conservatives started coming out of the woodwork to challenge him.
Recent polling shows Beeker in the lead, but in a statewide race in which none of the candidates have significant name ID, there is a lot of uncertainty heading into election day. Even the fact that Barbee’s name appears first on the ballot plays a role.
Most likely scenario:
Beeker receives the most votes, but doesn’t quite get to 50 percent in the crowded field, sending the race to a runoff against Dunn.
PSC Race 1 has also been fairly contentious, but Commissioner Jeremy Oden, who was appointed by Gov. Bentley in late 2012, appears to be well positioned to win a full term.
Alabama House of Representatives — District 79
Candidates:
Incumbent — House Speaker Mike Hubbard
Challenger — Sandy Toomer
Background:
This Auburn-area House District has been ground zero of the Alabama Education Association’s (AEA) fight to take down the Republican supermajority in the Legislature. They have spent an unprecedented amount of money to unseat House Speaker Mike Hubbard, who led Republicans’ “We Dare Defend Our Rights” legislative agenda. This race has seen everything from constant rumors of grand jury investigations to a tsunami of negative advertising from both sides on radio, TV and mail pieces.
The personal vendetta that AEA head Henry Mabry has against Hubbard is so strong that even if they lose every other race in the state, taking down Hubbard would make the $7+ million the AEA has spent on Alabama elections this year worth it, at least as far as he’s concerned.
Most likely scenario:
Recent polling showed Hubbard with the advantage going into the home stretch, but this one’s going to be a real dog fight right to the end.
U.S. House of Representatives — Alabama’s 6th Congressional District
Candidates:
Scott Beason
Will Brooke
Paul DeMarco
Chad Mathis
Gary Palmer
Robert Shattuck
Tom Vigneulle
Background:
DeMarco has been the frontrunner throughout the race, with Beason, Brooke, Mathis and Palmer all fighting for the second spot in the runoff. That’s still the case right here at the end, but DeMarco isn’t the absolute lock to get into the runoff that he once seemed to be.
Mathis and associated PACs launched an effective assault on the four other candidates near the top of this race. But he’s been hit as well by a recent round of ads by Will Brooke. Beason hasn’t been able to raise any money, but his hardcore base of support continues to make him a threat. Palmer has managed to stay out of the direct line of fire, which gives him a chance to pull a “Bentley” and squeak into the runoff while the other candidates destroy each other.
Most likely scenario:
DeMarco still probably gets into the runoff, although he’s going to have to turn up the intensity once he does. His worst matchup may be with Mathis. Third-party conservative groups have shown they’re willing to pump in big money into getting Mathis elected. We may have another classic Tea Party vs. Chamber of Commerce showdown on our hands.
State Auditor
Candidates:
Dale Peterson
Hobbie Sealy
Adam Thompson
Jim Zeigler
Background:
Any race that has viral video star Dale Peterson in it is going to be fun, but this one is especially interesting considering Peterson, a convicted thief, is running for the office of State Auditor, whose sole job is to keep track of what the state owns. Zeigler is a favorite of the south Alabama Tea Party. He served on the Public Service Commission early in his career, but since then has run and lost so many close races that he’s earned the nickname “Mr. 49 Percent.” Thompson was a staffer in the Auditor’s office under Beth Chapman, then went with her to the Secretary of States office, where he continues to work now.
Most likely scenario:
Recent polling shows that Zeigler has a chance to win this outright without a runoff due to his significant name ID advantage, but Thompson has the support of a lot of the major trade associations. The majority of people who vote in this race probably won’t be familiar with any of the candidates, which leaves a lot of uncertainty going into election day.
Alabama Senate — District 30
Candidates:
Clyde Chambliss, Prattville City Councilman
Harris Garner, local businessman
Bill Harris, insurance agent
Suzelle Josey, former spokesperson for Chief Justice Roy Moore
Background:
This Senate district, which after redistricting includes portions of Autauga, Elmore, Coosa, Chilton and Tallapoosa counties, was held by the late Democrat Wendell Mitchell for 36 years before Republican Bryan Taylor beat him in 2010. Taylor opted to not run for re-election, leading to this crowded primary fight. Chambliss and Garner appear to be the frontrunners, but the big question in this race is can Chambliss win it without a runoff?
Most likely scenario:
This race probably goes to a runoff between Chambliss and Garner. Most of the major trade associations are supporting Chambliss, so they would probably come in with a lot of resources to push him over the finish line.
Follow Cliff on Twitter @Cliff_Sims
