Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former presidential candidate Rick Santorum will share the spotlight and vie for headlines in Iowa this weekend.
The two are scheduled to speak just hours apart at Saturday’s Ames summit of The Family Leader. Santorum is also headlining a keynote address in Lyon County Thursday night and will swing by the State Fair Friday.
As the official winner of the 2012 caucuses, there’s no reason Santorum shouldn’t dominate the attention of activists and the media for the next 72 hours. Well, there’s one potential reason and that’s Cruz.
Here’s 5 reasons why Ted could create real trouble for Rick in his favorite corn-loving state:
1. Cruz has got the hot hand. It’ll only be his second visit to Iowa. (And of course, he’s still just focused solely on that Senate work.) But he’s already been invited back by the state party for a third stop in October. By year end, he may end up racking up more Hawkeye State visits than any other 2016 contender. That’s quite a pace for a senator navigating his first year in any elected office. But Cruz is in demand. His no-nonsense style coupled with his rigid ideology make him a dangerous candidate in Iowa. And he’s the new, new thing. Whereas Santorum is carrying a sort of “been there, done that” tinge on his sweater vest.
2. Cruz can swipe away Social-Cons. Santorum’s bread-and-butter in Iowa was the relationships he forged with social conservatives, evangelicals and home schoolers. Cruz has the ability to cut directly into that base. At last month’s event with pastors, Cruz detailed his history of supporting religious freedom in the courts and on the issue of gay marriage said, “There’s no issue where we need to be more on our knees,” referring to the power of prayer. In 2012, Santorum didn’t have someone who could match him on the faith-based argument. Cruz could change that.
3. On pure rhetoric, Cruz can match Santorum. Santorum’s greatest gift is his ability to connect with an audience. Unlike the rigid Romney or the granular Gingrich, he engaged voters, rather than just talking AT them. But of all the 2016ers, Cruz appears most well-positioned to threaten that advantage. He speaks with urgency and conviction and uses vivid imagery to make grandiose points. Cruz’s style is certainly more intellectually-driven than Santorum’s more folksy style. But he has an ability to move an audience, much like Santorum did.
4. The polls. TheRUN2016/cygnal July poll of the Iowa field found Santorum only marginally ahead of Cruz in a bunched up field. Just 11 votes separated the two. That’s quite a starting point for Cruz, who had not even yet entered the state. Public Policy Polling’s July poll of Iowa actually placed Cruz ahead of Santorum by 4 points.
Follow Dave’s blog at TheRun2016.com
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