NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C. — In 2008, if Iowa was the state that cracked Hillary Clinton’s inevitability, South Carolina crushed it.
The former First Lady was thrashed here in the Democratic primary, getting stomped by nearly 30 points — a demoralizing loss that signaled Barack Obama’s popularity was demonstrably wider and deeper than previously perceived.
So when I walked into the Trident Technical College auditorium for a state senate Democratic primary debate Tuesday night, I was expecting to encounter a fair share of Obama loyalists. What I wasn’t prepared for was the amount of Democrats who appeared to be open to an alternative to Hillary — and even some who openly said her time had passed.
“I just think she’s had her day. She’s done it and she didn’t make it and I think someone else has got to come in,” said Christine Castaneda, a native New Yorker who transplanted to Charleston decades ago.
And even for some women here, the historic sense of electing the first female president wasn’t as important as selecting someone who might be a bit more unconventional, a little outside the box. One man flatly told me he couldn’t support a woman for president.
Carmen and Mary, two older women who declined to give their last names, both recited the usual platitudes about Hillary’s service and experience, but said they would be open to an alternative if a particular candidate could make a compelling case. They couldn’t identify the person, but smartly noted, it’s usually impossible to know the next big thing at this very early vantage point.
“You know somebody always comes out of the woodwork,” said Carmen, an African-American woman who was with Obama in 2008.
“That’s exactly right Carmen,” said her friend Mary, a white woman with short gray hair and glasses. “And I’m not particularly interested in what would be the usual run of candidates. But if there was a dark horse that had some real substance behind him, I would be willing to listen.
Catanese: How important is it that it’s a female? Obviously, you’re both females — voting for the first female president is a historic thing. Would you be open to any type of dark horse?
Mary: I don’t operate on the premise that just because she didn’t get it the last time, she somehow is entitled to it this time. I don’t operate on that at all.
Catanese (to Carmen): Do you feel that way? As far as the issue of gender and how much that weighs on Democrats’ minds?
Carmen: Gender doesn’t bother me at all. It can be a male or female. It’s just the substance.
Graylyn Gaines, an impeccably dressed African-American man in a white suit with blue pinstripes, is a middle school math and science teacher who said the “jury was still out” on Hillary’s 2016 odds.
“Cory Booker,” was Gaines’ reply when I asked if it was Hillary or bust for Democrats the next time around.
Catanese: You like him?
Gaines: Yeah. His personality. I don’t know what he stands for as far as running this country but he has a really good personality and sometimes that helps.
Catanese: What do you think of Biden?
Gaines: (Smiling broadly) .. . That requires thought . . .
Catanese: Would you have preference between the two?
Gaines: I’d have to actually listen. I think a fool makes a decision before he listens to all the facts.
Catanese: You seem like overall that you like Hillary, but have an open mind to hearing out other candidates.
Gaines: Absolutely. . . any other options.
My next encounter with two women in their 60s — Christine Castaneda, a New York transplant and native Charlestonian Maxine Smith — was the most astonishing of my evening, and worth publishing most of the exchange.
Catanese: I’m just curious about your impressions. Obviously, Hillary ran last time. So her versus Biden, if you had any preference.
Castaneda: I don’t think either of them can win.
Catanese: Really?
Smith: Yeah, I like her very much but I don’t think either of them can win.
Catanese: Why’s that?
Castaneda: I just think she’s had her day. She’s done it and she didn’t make it and I think someone else has got to come in. I think we might get some other candidates.
Smith: I’d love to see Wasserman-Schultz run.
Catanese: Really?
Smith: For the reasons she gave, I think the same would be true for Biden. It’s time to make room for somebody who’s younger.
Catanese: Is electing the first female president important to you as women?
Smith: Not necessarily.
Castaneda: Although I wouldn’t mind the first Jew. We haven’t had one of those yet and I’m not Jewish.
Catanese: But you don’t think Hillary’s a lock at all?
Castaneda: I think she’s great but no, not at all.
Catanese: Is it generational do you think?
Castaneda: She’s my generation. I think she’s had her day.
Smith: Yeah, I kinda love her but I think her time is up too.
Catanese: Really?
Castaneda: I know what it’s like to do my work. And she did 20 times my work and it’s exhausting.
Catanese: So is it you just get to a certain age and the burden of the presidency is too much?
Castaneda: No I don’t want to frame it in age. I just think she’s had her run. For sympathy, I’d love to see her . . . but we need somebody who is going to win.
Smith: I think the age thing would be for him. For Hillary, she’s kind of tired with all that she’s done. She’s given a lot to this country. I just think we need to find that untapped person who still has that name recognition, lot of energy. Wasserman-Schultz has been here a couple of times, I like her energy. I have not heard her name thrown out there before.
When I asked Thad Simmons, an African-American resident of Charleston about Clinton, his immediate reply was he knew that “Hillary would weasel her way into the process” in some way.
That’s one way to put it.
But it became abundantly clear that while Simmons “wouldn’t have a problem” with Hillary running, she certainly wasn’t his first choice.
Catanese: Do you think she’s inevitable?
Simmons: She might have a fight on her hands. She had a fight on her hands when she ran against Obama.
Catanese: But that’s why people are saying she’s going to be such a heavy favorite, because she’s a female. But you think somebody could challenge her?
Simmons: Yeah, but it’s going to have to be a pretty strong challenger.
Catanese: Do you think she’s the best challenger for Democrats?
Simmons: I’d go with her or Joe Biden, even though he’s a little bit fiery. I like Joe Biden.
Catanese: So it could come down to him and Hillary. Would that be a tough call for you?
Simmons: Umm . . . in that case, I think I’d go with Biden.
Catanese: Huh. Why Biden?
Simmons: (Mumbling) He’s a male.
Catanese: So gender matters to you? That he’s a male?
Simmons: Well, yeah. (Chuckles)
This certainly can’t be ascribed as the prevalent view, but it is an opinion nonetheless and one that can’t be completely disregarded in southern, more conservative-aligned states.
The final two men I spoke to offered up the view I thought I’d hear over and over: Hillary should run, likely won’t be beaten and would make a fabulous president.
“If Hillary really decides to get into it, I don’t think she’s going to be beaten,” said Reginald Williams, who noted he was surprised at what I found from other Democrats in the audience.
George Tempel, a former chair of the Charleston County Democratic Party, was on message like no other, lauding the marvelous president currently occupying the office and heaping tons of praise on Clinton.
“I would absolutely enthralled to have a woman in there,” he gushed.
This is the guy who represents her 65 percent support totals in Iowa and New Hampshire.
But even Tempel — an Obama supporter in 2008 — is smart enough to recall history when fielding the inevitability question.
“This is politics,” he paused, as he continued to hand out flyers for a state senate candidate. ”There’s no such thing as inevitable.”
Follow Dave’s blog at TheRun2016.com
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