Special election in North Alabama: Blue wave or spring break?

It may be a bellwether, it may mean nothing.

The opinion about whether any special election means anything is generally based on where you stand politically. State House District 21 in Madison County, Alabama, probably doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. Former Head of Public Safety for the city of Huntsville Rex Reynolds, the Republican, beat Democrat Terry Jones to keep the seat out of the blue column.

If you are a Republican, when you look at these results all you see is a win:

Alabama House of Representatives, District 21, Special Election, 2018
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Rex Reynolds	52.8%	2,431
	Democratic	C. Terry Jones	47.1%	2,167
Total Votes				4,602

(Ballotpedia)

But if you are a Democrat, you look at the results and see a significant closing of the gap from 2014:

Alabama House of Representatives District 21, General Election, 2014
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Jim Patterson Incumbent	67.3%	9,428
	Democratic	C. Terry Jones	32.6%	4,558
	NA	Write-In	0.1%	13
Total Votes				13,999

(Ballotpedia)

Why this matters: This is another race that appears to be closer than it should have been. Democrats feel energized and engaged, buoyed by non-stop negative media coverage of a Republican president and various protest movements (women, students, The Resistance) appearing to take over the country’s attention each month. But there are some caveats that may mean that these results don’t really mean much: There was almost no media coverage of this race, it was a special election with 9,367 fewer voters than the last general election in this district, and both school districts in this State House district are on spring break.

Reynolds will probably never cast a vote before his primary election in June, he can’t do anything until the results are officially certified. So the real messages should be obvious, this special election was a massive waste of resources for the state and the way we deal with legislative victories is massively flawed.

The details:

— Republicans have lost 39 legislative seats across the country since Donald Trump has become president.

— A recent report by the Brennan Center for Justice, indicated that Democrats need to win by 11 points nationally to take back the House, the current Democrat lead on the generic ballot is six points.

— In 2010, the year of the Tea Party, Republicans held a six point lead on Democrats and took back the House after winning 63 seats.

— State Senate Pro Tem Del Marsh has predicted Republicans will pick up seats in Alabama.

@TheDaleJackson is a contributing writer to Yellowhammer News and hosts a conservative talk show from 7-11 AM weekdays on WVNN in Huntsville.