Alabama runoff elections are set to take place on Tuesday, with several hotly contested races still very much in doubt. With turnout expected to be historically low — the Alabama Secretary of State is estimating around 5 percent — every vote will count.
Here are four races that Alabamians should be paying particularly close attention to when they head to the polls on Tuesday and when returns start rolling in that night.
Alabama’s 6th Congressional District
The gubernatorial campaign is a snoozer this year, making the race to become Alabama’s next congressman 2014’s premier contest.
Having served nine years in the Alabama Legislature, state representative Paul DeMarco (R-Homewood) entered the AL-06 race as the frontrunner, and finished first in the primary with 33 percent of the vote. Conservative think tank president Gary Palmer surged in the final week of the primary and came in second with 19 percent.
Both candidates have spent roughly a million dollars or more on campaign ads, but this one’s going to come down to which campaign can get their supporters to actually turn out to the polls.
Palmer’s turnout efforts may be boosted by a state house runoff taking place in north Shelby County, where he was strongest in the primary. There’s also a state senate runoff in north Jefferson County for the seat currently occupied by Sen. Scott Beason that the Palmer camp is hoping will help their cause. Beason ran in the AL-06 primary, and has endorsed Palmer. If turnout in those areas is higher than the rest of the District because of the local races also on the ballot, that could be the difference in a close race.
DeMarco’s ground game is being helmed by campaign veteran Chris Brown, who has proven himself to be a savvy operator in low turnout state legislative races in recent years. DeMarco supporters fanned out across the District over the weekend, reportedly knocking on five-figures worth of doors. That kind of final push could help DeMarco hold on.
Alabama Public Service Commission – Place 2
With very little drama at the top of the ticket, this is the statewide race that has gotten the most attention.
After Republican incumbent Terry Dunn sided with environmental groups on a series of high-profile votes, three conservative challengers stepped up to unseat him, each of them focusing heavily on pushing back against the Obama administration’s environmental regulations.
Businessman Chip Beeker emerged from the crowded field on top with 39 percent of the vote. Dunn came in second with 33 percent.
The Obama administration managed to expand the government’s role in healthcare by pushing legislation through Congress, but was unsuccessful doing the same with environmental regulations. As a result, they’ve resorted to implementing their agenda through executive branch agencies, primarily the EPA.
The energy sector of the U.S. economy is going to be a major target of the Obama administration over the next couple of years. That makes the public utility regulators at the PSC particularly important, and makes this race one to watch.
(Video Below: Alabama’s “enviro invasion” explained in 90 seconds)
Alabama Senate district 17
Seven Republicans jumped at a shot to run for the state senate seat being vacated by Scott Beason (R-Gardendale), who decided to run for Congress instead of seeking a fifth term in the Alabama Legislature (two in the House, two in the Senate).
Trussville businessman and former public school teacher Shay Shelnutt came in first in the crowded primary, garnering 35 percent of the vote. Locust Fork attorney Brett King came in second at 30 percent.
King has an interesting back story. He’s a graduate of Jeff State, Auburn, Yale and Alabama, and paid his way through all of those colleges as a semi-professional gambler. But the most notable aspect of King’s campaign for most Republicans is probably that he’s received the backing of the Alabama Education Association (AEA), a group that has essentially become the state’s de facto Democratic Party with the decline of the official party apparatus.
Beason, on the other hand, has vocally backed Shelnutt.
“There is no doubt in my mind that Shay Shelnutt is the most conservative candidate in this race,” Beason said recently. “Shay’s faith is strong and his character unwavering. He will be strong on immigration, against higher taxes, pro-family and fight to protect seniors in our district.”
But why should Alabamians outside of Senate District 17 pay particularly close attention to this race?
Voters across Jefferson County will be rooting for Shelnutt to win so this seat stays a part of the Jefferson County delegation.
Statewide, the AEA’s $7-million campaign to unseat Republicans in the Alabama Legislature has been incredibly unsuccessful to this point. If they’re unable to get King elected, they will have failed to pickup a single Republican-controlled senate seat this election cycle. Whether you view that as a good thing or a bad thing, this race is worth watching either way.
Alabama Secretary of State
State Rep. John Merrill (R-Tuscaloosa) came in first in the secretary of state primary with 40 percent of the vote, followed closely by former Montgomery County Probate Judge Reese McKinney, who came in second with 38 percent.
The campaign attacks have been flying hot and heavy in this race in recent weeks.
Merrill’s barbs have been aimed at McKinney’s time as probate judge, during which he filed a lawsuit accusing state and local officials of reneging on a property deal. Merrill said the lawsuit cost the local government “millions.” McKinney has brushed it off, simply saying “there were folks who did some wrong, and we took action.”
McKinney has pointed out that Merrill was a Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for the Legislature before switching parties to run again (and win) as a Republican. He’s kept the messaging simple, referring to Merrill as “a liberal.”
So why should you care? Whoever wins will be in charge of protecting the sanctity of Alabama elections for the next four years. Enough said.
Are there any other races you’re paying close attention to? Let us know in the comment section below or by tweeting @YHPolitics.
Follow Cliff on Twitter @Cliff_Sims
