Takeaways from the ALGOP Chairman Election

Alabama Republican Party Chairman Bill Armistead surprised many onlookers Saturday morning (including me!) by winning re-election by a comfortable margin of 221 – 159.

One longtime ALGOP executive committee member told Yellowhammer several weeks ago that every single contested Party election he’d ever seen included two candidates who genuinely thought they were going to run away with the win. The 2013 ALGOP Chairman’s election was no exception.

This race may have had more political intrigue than any in recent memory.

There were emails containing wild accusations flying around from fake accounts, there was a bizarre secretly recorded phone call released that no one could quite make sense of, there were conspiracy theories, speculation about “spiritual warfare,” and countless executive committee members telling both candidates they had their support.

What a ride!

Now that the dust has settled, the stage is set for the Alabama Republican Party to move forward toward 2014 with a focus on electing more conservatives. But before we turn our attention to the next election cycle, let’s take a quick look at a few things we can take away from Saturday’s election:

1. We’ve entered a new era inside the State Party

“With rare exceptions, the sitting Governor has typically held a lot of sway in Party elections,” one steering committee member told Yellowhammer Sunday afternoon. “This year the Governor and almost every notable elected Republican in the state had endorsed Matt Fridy. In the past that would have ensured victory.”

Chief Justice Roy Moore was the only prominent elected official who endorsed Armistead. One article even suggested Armistead’s victory meant Moore is more powerful than any other elected official in the state. Let’s not get crazy here… ALGOP is now simply operating under an executive committee that is not easily influenced by any elected official — positively or negatively.

The wonderers have already started wondering though… Will Judge Moore be emboldened by the Armistead victory and consider a primary challenge to Bentley? Hmmmm…

2. The ALGOP Executive Committee is no longer a reflection of the larger population of self-identified Republicans across the state.

I’m not saying this is a good thing or a bad thing — it’s just reality. The Governor enjoys an approval rating in the 80s among Republicans across Alabama. The current legislature is about as popular as any legislative body gets. However, a good chunk of the executive committee is clearly not happy with the Governor and/or the legislative leadership.

Polling suggests Amendment 1 didn’t hurt elected Republicans with the GOP electorate statewide, but it clearly hurt them with members of the executive committee.

3. Fundraising may be difficult for the Party moving forward.

Republican incumbents who have historically relied on ALGOP resources may increasingly find their funding from leadership PACs and other sources outside of the traditional Party structure. Some major Republican donors have already begun moving their funds away from the Party. After the very public dispute between ALGOP and many of the state’s elected leaders, that’s likely to continue.

The AEA has already begun playing in Republican primaries in recent special elections. By the 2014 cycle, they will have identified candidates they can fund to challenge Republican incumbents all across the state. Having the resources to protect conservative incumbents is more important now than it’s ever been.

4. Intra-party fights are here to stay.

While “unity” is the word of the day after any Party election, the reality is the state is moving more and more toward one Party rule, and intra-Party squabbles are inevitable. As long as it doesn’t hurt the Party’s ability to elect conservatives at the ballot box, it’s probably a healthy process.

Congrats to Chairman Armistead on a hard fought win!