This will be a great political year, with some fantastic, interesting, and close contests. However, there will be only one hotly contested open congressional seat this year in the Heart of Dixie. The other six incumbent congressmen will coast to reelection, either unopposed or with token opposition.
This is not unusual in today’s national politics. It is next to impossible to defeat an incumbent congressperson. The winning percentage for sitting congressmen is 95%. The Russian Communist Politburo does not have that high a reelectability rate.
The new First District Congressional Seat is open and provides for a competitive battle. This recently configured district is a Republican seat. It was drawn by intrusive Federal Judges, who declared that one man, one vote, and all voters are created equally does not apply to Republican voters. They ruled that a black Democratic vote is more important than a white Republican vote.
The Federal Judges corralled all the white Republicans into a district, which is irrational for having a concerted voice in Washington. They usurped the majority Republican Legislature’s power, and placed the Republicans in Mobile and Baldwin Counties in with the Wiregrass Republicans. These two regions have nothing in common, especially when it comes to Federal needs. However, this is what these folks have for the time being.
The seat is open because the winner of the seat two years ago, Barry Moore, is running for our open U.S. Senate seat. Moore defeated Jerry Carl two years ago in a close race. Jerry Carl, a two-term former congressman from the Mobile/Baldwin area is pitted against State Representative Rhett Marques. It will be a battle between Mobile/Baldwin Republicans and the Wiregrass Republicans.
Moore, who is from the Wiregrass, energized Wiregrass voters to turn out to vote for him better than Carl did with his Baldwin home region voters. It will be interesting to see if Marques can replicate Moore’s success in the Wiregrass. Fort Rucker and agriculture are vitally important to this region.
Shomari Figures won the newly, federally drawn majority/minority Democratic Second District two years ago. He will be easily reelected to a second two-year term this year. He has taken to Congress like a duck to water and done an excellent job. When you look at his resume and life experience, you could expect this success. Shomari was born to iconic Democratic legislative legends.
His father, Michael Figures, was President Pro Tem of the Alabama State Senate. His mother, Vivian Figures, took the mantle and has been one of the longest serving and most effective State Senators in Mobile history. He is striving to work across the aisle. He garnered a seat on the Republican laden Agriculture Committee.
Our senior Democratic Congresswoman Terri Sewell has become a very powerful member of Congress. She has been in her Democratic seat for 15 years. She is in the leadership in the U.S. House Democratic Caucus. If the Democrats take control of the U.S. House in this Fall’s national elections, she will be in the catbird seat when it comes to Alabama’s Congressional power in Washington.
It is not a possibility but a probability that the Democrats will take the majority control of the U.S. House in November. Historically, when the sitting President is of one party, and his party has prevailed with a slim majority in his Presidential election, the minority party wins significant seats and flips to the majority in the House.
This elective precedent has never failed to occur. In addition, the current Republican majority is razor thin. It is expected that the majority party in the House will be Democratic. Terri Sewell will be powerful. If the Republicans buck the trend, we have a group of very powerful congressmen who will continue in the House leadership.
Representative Robert Aderholt has represented the Fourth District with honor and distinction for 30 years. He is on course to be Alabama’s longest serving and most powerful Congressman in history. He currently chairs the House Appropriations Committee.
Representative Mike Rogers has represented the Third District for 23 years. He chairs the very important Armed Services Committee.
Representative Gary Palmer has done a stellar job of representing the very conservative Sixth District for 11 years.
Representative Dale Strong has only been in his Huntsville based Fifth District for three years but is doing an outstanding job and is well liked by the House GOP leadership, as well as the White House.
See you next week.
Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at [email protected].
