The six biggest takeaways from Doug Jones’ dramatic victory over Roy Moore

Tuesday’s special election victory by Democrat Doug Jones was dramatic — no doubt about it.

Barring a successful recount, he will become the first Democrat to represent Alabama in the Senate in nearly a quarter century. Here are the six most notable takeaways from an election that capped a very strange year in Alabama politics:

1. Here is how Jones won.

A combination of two main factors fueled Jones’ victory — a heavy black turnout coupled with defections of urban and suburban voters.

Jones won all of the traditional “big four” counties — Jefferson, Madison, Mobile and Montgomery. It’s hard to win a statewide race in Alabama if you lose all four; they accounted for nearly 42 percent of all votes cast. And the task becomes even harder when a candidate struggles in other Republican-leaning counties.

In addition to the big four, Moore also lost Tuscaloosa and Lee counties, among the 13 counties won by President Donald Trump last year that backed Jones. And Moore fared worse in heavily Republican areas. His share of the votes cast for him or the Democrat declined by 6 percentage points in Shelby County compared to his share of the two-party vote when he narrowly won election as chief justice in 2012.

While Moore ran only slightly worse in Baldwin County, he noticeably underperformed in suburban areas. Jones actually won the vote-rich and strongly GOP Daphne Civic Center polling place and came within 2 percentage points of winning the Fairhope Civic Center.

Jones also benefited from a massive turnout of black voters. Exit polls suggested that African-Americans made up 29 percent of the electorate. That is higher than the black share of voters in 2012, stunning considering the first black president was running for re-election that year.

Those two factors overcame Moore’s strength elsewhere. His share of the two-party vote actually increased from 2012 in 36 counties. He ran particularly strong in majority-white, rural counties in northern Alabama and the Wiregrass.

Moore’s share of the two-party vote was at least 6 points higher than in 2012 in a dozen counties.

The overall turnout — more than 1.3 million, or 40.5 percent — more closely resembled a gubernatorial election.

2. There was no deluge of write-in votes, but they played an important role.

A Libertarian candidate and a former aide to White House Chief of Staff John Kelly both offered themselves as write-in candidates. Some voters contemplated following the lead of Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Tuscaloosa), who said he would write in the name of a “distinguished” Republican rather than cast his ballot for Moore.

There was no massive protest vote, however. Statewide, write-in votes made up 1.7 percent of the vote.

Still, the 22,819 votes exceed Jones’ margin over Moore. They were close but not quite a record — that occurred during a race in which Public Service Commission Chairwoman Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh ran unopposed.

“It is a high margin, one of the most that’s ever been achieved in a competitive race,” Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill told reporters Tuesday night.

Write-in votes played a bigger role in large counties that normally lean Republican, suggesting that some conflicted Republicans in those counties chose that as an alternative to voting for Moore or a Democrat. Write-ins made up 3.1 percent of the vote in Madison and Lee counties, followed by Baldwin (2.7 percent), Shelby (2.6 percent), and Marshall and Etowah (2.3 percent each).

Meanwhile, write-ins were a non-factor in most rural counties, whether they supported Moore or Jones. Write-ins made up less than 1 percent of the vote in 25 counties. Just seven votes out of 2,712 in Bullock County went to people not on the ballot.

3. The sexual-abuse charges appear to have played a surprisingly small role.

Perhaps for some wavering Republicans, the allegations that Moore made inappropriate sexual or romantic advances toward teenagers when he was in his 30s was the last straw. But exit polls suggest it merely hardened positions on both sides.

Only 41 percent indicated that the allegations were the most important or an important factor in their votes. Jones won 89 percent of the folks who believed the allegations are true, according to exit polling. Moore took 94 percent of the vote from people who said the accusations are not true.

A majority of voters, 57 percent, made up their minds before the sexual-misconduct allegations broke, and they favored Jones 53 percent to 46 percent. Among the 42 percent who decided in November or December, Moore actually had a small advantage, 50 percent to 47 percent.

4. Speaking of Shelby.

In a way, Shelby came full circle with this election. He had been the last Democrat to win a Senate race when he won re-election in 1992. That year, despite a Republican winning the presidential race in the state, he carried every county except Shelby.

When Shelby switched parties in 1994, it helped set off a slow-motion death march that has reduced the Democrats in Alabama to their sorriest point in history.

But Shelby’s high-profile refusal to back Moore provided fodder for the standard-bearer of his former party.

5. Jones immediately becomes one of the most endangered incumbents in the country — and he will not even be on the ballot again until 2020.

There is a long history of accidental election winners, politicians who win a special election because of an unusual political environment or triumph in a district where their party has no business competing because of a scandal.

Jones benefited from both on Tuesday.

But the historical record of those accidental victors is not great. Anh “Joseph” Cao in 2008 took advantage of a criminal investigation of incumbent Democratic Rep. William Jefferson to become the first Republican ever elected in a heavily black congressional district in New Orleans. His career as a representative was short-lived; Democrat Cedric Richardson bounced him two years later.

In 1991, Democrat Harris Wofford won a special election to finish the term of a Pennsylvania senator who had died in a plane crash. But when Wofford ran for a full term in 1994, he lost to Republican Rick Santorum.

More recently, Republican Bob Turner narrowly won a special election in 2011 to replace Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.), who had resigned in disgrace amid a sexting scandal. The legislature eliminated the seat in redistricting in 2012, and rather than fight an uphill battle in a different district, he ran unsuccessfully for the GOP nomination for the Senate.

And then there is Republican Scott Brown, who pulled off the reverse of Jones’ victory, winning a special election for the Senate in deep-blue Massachusetts in 2010 — only to lose two years later to Democrat Elizabeth Warren.

So enjoy your Senate seat, Doug Jones. You might not have it long.

6. Alabama is still a red state.

Nothing about Tuesday’s results suggest a fundamental change in Alabama’s politics. Instead, it appears to be all about Moore. Some 56 percent of voters, according to exit polling, had an unfavorable view of him.

Other data suggest Alabama is the same as it was a year ago. Some 45 percent called themselves conservative, vs. 23 percent or self-identified as liberal.

A small plurality said Jones does not share their values. A majority believe abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. By a 5-point margin, voters said they prefer Republicans to control the Senate. President Donald Trump’s approval rating, 48 percent, is much higher than his national average.

Put it this way: The GOP nominee had twice been removed from his job on the state Supreme Court for ethics infractions, raised and spent millions of dollars less than his opponent, virtually disappeared for long stretches on the campaign trail and faced allegations of sexually abusing a child — and still nearly won the race. That’s not a sign of Republican weakness in Alabama. It’s the opposite.

The real lesson is that no party is invincible. The dominant party will sometimes lose races under the right conditions.

Brendan Kirby is senior political reporter at LifeZette.com and a Yellowhammer contributor. He also is the author of “Wicked Mobile.” Follow him on Twitter.