The most important number in the new Public Policy Polling survey out of New Hampshire is 18.
That’s the amount of points Sen. Marco Rubio has hemorrhaged in the GOP primary field in a span of five months.
In April, the Florida senator registered 25 percent in the PPP poll, which was good enough for a strong second place in the Granite State.
He’s now plummeted to just 7 percent, wallowing in sixth place.
Here’s a side-by-side look at the two New Hampshire GOP 2016 PPP polls:
Now April
Rand Paul 20% 28%
Chris Christie 19% 14%
Jeb Bush 14% 7%
Kelly Ayotte 12% —
Ted Cruz 10% —
Marco Rubio 7% 25%
Paul Ryan 7% 7%
The takeaways:
- Rand is hurt by Cruz. After Cruz’s first foray into the Granite State last month, he’s proven he can be a factor, shooting to double-digits. That has to be some of Rand’s constituency he’s stealing from.
- The good news for Christie? Kelly Ayotte isn’t likely to run for president. That means her 12 percent is going elsewhere and seems more naturally suited for him to scoop up, than anyone else — especially if Jeb Bush doesn’t run.
- Additionally, if Bush doesn’t run, the most logically place his supporters would end up would be in Christie’s camp. At least given the current dynamics in the party.
Here’s the side-by-side look at PPP’s 2016 Democratic polls:
Now April
Hillary Clinton 57% 68%
Joe Biden 12% 12%
Elizabeth Warren 11% 5%
Cory Booker 4% —
The takeaways:
- Warren saw the greatest growth on the Democratic side. Poo-poo a 6-point gain over a five month period? Remember she’s a freshman senator in office a total of nine months who is deadlocked with a sitting vice president who boasts decades of service.
- Booker is not even a U.S. Senator yet and he’s registering marginally more than Govs. Andrew Cuomo and Martin O’Malley. Oh, there will be a Twitter-like temptation for him to run, but it’s probably even a bridge too long for the Newark mayor.
- Note to PPP: Why not include Howard Dean next time?
Follow Dave’s blog at TheRun2016.com
