Thursday afternoon, former President Donald Trump was convicted in New York on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. The verdict made Trump the first-ever former president to be convicted of a felony.
Generally, the betting market is a fairly good indicator of who the next president will be. In 2020, just days before the election, many books had President Biden as a -250 favorite (an implied probability of 71.4 percent) and Trump around +190 (an implied probability of roughly 34 percent).
Things can shift dramatically over the course of six months and the long-term market effect of the guilty verdict remains to be seen. However, Trump’s odds in the 2024 election were impacted slightly on Thursday.
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In most markets, the former president entered the day with a roughly 53 percent implied probability of victory. According to ElectionBettingOdds.com, news of the conviction dropped his odds to around 50 percent, marking a 3.3 percent decrease.
President Biden, on the other hand, entered Thursday with just a 38 percent implied probability of victory. That number has risen to over 40 percent overnight.
Despite the conviction, Trump still holds a fairly significant advantage in the odds market with roughly six months until the election.
Michael Brauner is a Senior Sports Analyst and Contributing Writer for Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @MBraunerWNSP and hear him every weekday morning from 6 to 9 a.m. on “The Opening Kickoff” on WNSP-FM 105.5, available free online.
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