Control of the Senate is the biggest prize of the 2014 election cycle, and Alabama’s two Senate seats are safe in Republicans hands. But Scott Bland of National Journal wrote today that one of Alabama’s congressional districts is the center of another battle for control in the U.S. House — not between parties, but among competing factions inside the GOP.
“The true undercard to the Senate fight isn’t the tug-of-war between Democrats and Republicans over a dwindling number of purple districts. It’s the primary campaigns in open safe seats like Alabama’s 6th,” Bland explained. “Because these districts are not battlegrounds in the traditional sense, the campaigns for them aren’t getting much attention. And they’re not as sexy as primary challenges to incumbents. But the ultimate effects could be enormous.”
Bland and many other members of the media and political establishment in D.C. are watching Republican primary elections closely because their outcome will determine the makeup of the Republican House majority during the next Congress. Whether John Boehner will be re-elected Speaker will depend, at least in part, on the outcome of these races.
23 of the 45 open House seats this year, including Alabama’s 6th Congressional District, could be described as safely Republican. Those 23 new Republican House members will make up around 10 percent of the GOP majority in Congress next year.
Of the over two dozen retiring Republicans, all but two of them supported John Boehner for Speaker in 2013. But many of the candidates running for open seats in safe Republican districts this cycle are at minimum non-committal on who they would support for Speaker. National Journal pointed out that some are even “openly hostile to the idea of Boehner retaining the gavel in 2015.” No 6th Congressional District candidate has openly said they would support Boehner for Speaker, and some have even made replacing Boehner one of their talking points during candidate forums and debates.
Bland wrote that National Journal believes four of the seven candidates running in AL-06 have a legitimate chance to win — Scott Beason, Will Brooke, Paul DeMarco and Chad Mathis.
In trying to determine the type House member each of them would be if elected, here are some of the things they wrote (in the order they appeared in the article):
Will Brooke:
Brooke’s business and political experience are intertwined: He once chaired the state chamber of commerce, and in 2010 he ran the group’s political action committee. Brooke’s personal wealth has played a key role in his campaign, giving him some of the resources necessary to beam his previously little-known face to local TVs. His “solutions-oriented” approach may not include everything prescribed by his old organization, the Business Council of Alabama, but it’s impossible to call him anything other than a business candidate.
Paul DeMarco:
A lawyer by trade and a member of his local chambers of commerce, he has doggedly built himself a foundation for his congressional run. DeMarco has spent nearly a decade in the state Capitol, and he is a lanky, eager fixture at community events all over his district—and beyond… Whether because of all this political groundwork, or because of his well-stocked campaign account, DeMarco is at or near the top of every survey of the district’s GOP voters.
Chad Mathis:
Chad Mathis has the feel of a newer style of Republican primary contender. While DeMarco made local connections in his legislative capacity and Brooke did the same through the business world, Mathis has laid a different kind of groundwork: He forged ties with some of the national conservative groups that eventually endorsed him while volunteering on Ted Cruz’s Senate bid and other efforts. In this campaign, Mathis has taken on the role of defender of the faith, running radio ads criticizing his GOP opponents for past proposals, donations, and votes that broke from conservative orthodoxy.
Scott Beason:
Beason comes from the more rural, northern section of the district, where he has established a reputation as a hard-line conservative in the state Legislature. In numerous cases, as with his recent bill allowing employees to keep guns locked in their cars at work (which passed the state Senate but died in the House), this has put Beason in conflict with Alabama’s business lobby—but endeared him to a grassroots conservative following.
On the potential for outside groups to pump money into the race:
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Bachus over Beason in 2012, and he could attract more opposition again in 2014 if it looks like his campaign is making moves. So could Mathis; like magnets, the outside groups supporting him seem to draw the same antagonists from the traditional Republican establishment wherever they go.
“We don’t know what will happen to Boehner in 2015,” Bland wrote in conclusion. “But we don’t need to wait until the next Congress to start making educated guesses. The answers will play out across the country over the course of this primary season,” including right here in Alabama’s 6th District.
Follow Cliff on Twitter @Cliff_Sims
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