Auburn University at Montgomery’s (AUM) Department of Political Science and Public Administration on Monday released a poll showing Republican U.S. Senate nominee Tommy Tuberville leading incumbent U.S. Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) by 12 percentage points with only four weeks to go until the November 3 general election.
The AUM poll was conducted between September 30 and October 3, surveying 1,072 registered Alabama voters. The margin of error was ±4%. Respondents were recruited through an online platform, and responses were then reportedly weighted according to state demographics such as age, education, income, race and gender.
The results said that about 54% of Alabamians intend to vote for Tuberville, while 42% plan to vote for Jones. Approximately 4% of respondents were inclined to write in another candidate’s name.
“Poll results show that Tuberville enjoys his widest levels of support among voters who are white, older, have less education, and belong to an evangelical congregation,” stated David Hughes, assistant professor of political science and director of AUM Poll. “These trends typify voting today.”
“Modern Republican politics continues to emphasize much of the culture war issues like same-sex marriage, law and order, and illegal immigration that dominated American politics over the past 20-30 years,” he continued.
Given the current electorate, Hughes advised that “Democrats like Doug Jones will continue to struggle in places like Alabama.”
Despite Jones’ losing numbers, Hughes added that Alabama’s junior senator appears to be outperforming Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by approximately five percentage points. According to the AUM Poll results, about 57% of respondents intend to vote for Trump, with 37% planning to vote for Biden.
It should be noted that polls (such as this one) that only survey registered voters rather than likely voters tend to overstate Democratic support. It is likely Tuberville and Trump are doing better in Alabama than these AUM Poll numbers state.
A recent Morning Consult poll of likely voters found that Tuberville was leading Jones by 18 percentage points.
Sean Ross is the editor of Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @sean_yhn
