Among the easiest things media in the SEC footprint can take away from Paul Finebaum’s success are that making fun of Michigan football coach Jim Harbaugh and beating up on Clemson is good for business.
In addition, whether you are counting on readers, listeners or viewers, the home team doing well naturally increases engagement.
Which is why I’m hoping Auburn beats LSU. And is also why I set out to write an article highlighting the reasons why Auburn would win in Baton Rouge on Saturday.
LSU’s offense has undergone a remarkable transformation since last season. Everyone knows that by now. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is now the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
Auburn has looked OK. Bo Nix looks like he will be a four-year starter and win a lot of games in the process. But he has looked like a true freshman at times, and Auburn’s offense has been a bit inconsistent.
I was determined, though, to mine the stats proving Auburn will leave Tiger Stadium having scored more points than LSU.
After eight weeks of the season, we are finally at the point where stats begin to have some legitimate relevance. Schedules have started to even out and teams have tape on one another. So I just knew there had to be something out there, some collection of metrics, which would give me the three reasons why Auburn will beat LSU.
First glance at LSU’s stats told me Burrow is second in the nation in passing yards with 2,484, and he is tied for first in passing touchdowns having tossed 29. Pretty impressive. He’s also cruising along, completing 79.4% of his passes. The number bumps up to 82.5% against top 25 teams. LSU is second in the country in yards per play with a 7.87-yard average. We have heard all the hype about LSU’s offense. It seems to be true.
But we have also heard about how their defense has fallen way off. It’s not a typical LSU not-give-an-inch-of-ground unit. There must be a big disparity in defensive units going into this game. This is where I’m going to make my argument. This is it.
LSU’s defense is ranked 24 in the nation. That seemed a little high given all the talk about how their defense was so much weaker. Next, I went to find where Auburn’s defense ranked. They are sitting at 23 in total defense. Huh. This article was starting to get a little tricky.
Hopeful there was still some differentiating stat out there, I dug in a little more. Scoring defense is important. Auburn is a respectable 16 in the country, LSU is 20. A bit of a hope-dasher when you remember LSU’s offense is second in scoring and Auburn’s offense is 23.
Then I found it. Auburn is 17 in the country in tackles for a loss. LSU is 55. Boom.
For a split second, like a degenerate gambler placing a wager based on how frequently a team covers the spread on natural grass versus artificial turf, I almost decided to publish an article picking Auburn over LSU based on the fact that they are averaging 1.3 more tackles for a loss per game than the Bayou Tigers.
Then common sense prevailed, and I shut it down.
In order to win, Auburn is going need for LSU to be overly eager for its bye week and looking ahead to its matchup in Tuscaloosa. Could happen. Would not be the first time for a college football team.
Maybe it will be all the trick plays Gus has stored up. A little less plausible.
Or maybe it will take weird plays like an underthrown deep ball that bounces off the defender and into the hands of an Auburn wide receiver. Or some kind of crazy special teams touchdown.
I so badly wanted to pick Auburn in this game. But I just couldn’t do it.
Tim Howe is an owner of Yellowhammer Multimedia
