George Wallace was governor of Alabama for over 16 years — 5,848 days, to be exact. He won the office four times, serving two consecutive terms and two non-consecutive terms. He helped get his wife elected governor once, as well. So although he was unsuccessful in his attempts to get elected to national office, it’s safe to say that he knew a thing or two about winning elections.
As Gov. Wallace would make his way around the state campaigning, he would, as all politicians do, ask voters for their support. But interestingly, someone responding that they were planning to vote for him was not necessarily the response he was looking for. No, Wallace used to say that he’d rather someone tell him they thought he was going to win than that they were planning to cast a vote in his favor. People want to support a winner, he believed, so the most important thing he could do was convince people he was going to win.
Wallace intuitively sensed what is now commonly referred to as the bandwagon effect. In short, the more people believe that other people support something, the more they “hop on the bandwagon.”
So why does this matter right now?
According to a new Gallup survey, the majority of Americans (52%) now believe Republicans will retake the majority in the Senate in November. And it’s not just George Wallace’s gut and some wonky political scientists who think this is a big deal. Gallup’s own polling history provides some solid evidence that the American people are usually pretty good a picking winners and losers.
Although this is the first time Gallup has asked the likely party outcome in the U.S. Senate, “Americans’ predictions for the U.S. House, albeit limited in number, have been remarkably accurate, aligning with the winning party in all five midterms in which the question was asked,” according to Gallup’s Lydia Saad.
“Gallup has also found that Americans as whole have a good track record of predicting which presidential candidate will win the popular vote, forecasting the correct winner in each of the four elections since 1996.”
If Wallace were still alive and tracking the battle for control of the U.S. Senate, he’d see that all three major election models (Washington Post, New York Times and FiveThirtyEight) predict that his beloved Democratic Party will be swept out of power, but it’s this latest Gallup polling that would have him the most concerned.
Check out more of Yellowhammer’s recent coverage of the U.S. Senate races below:
> No state gains more than Alabama if Republicans take over US Senate
> Here’s how Alabama’s senators became major players in the GOP’s efforts to retake the senate
> A quick inside look at Shelby’s relentless push for Republicans to retake the senate
Follow Cliff on Twitter @Cliff_Sims
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