The United States presidential election is consistently the biggest global news story every four years. In recent years, wagering on the results has become increasingly popular, with gambling odds often viewed as more accurate than traditional polling.
The trends in the odds market have strongly gone towards former President Donald Trump in the previous weeks in his race for the White House against Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to one of the largest oddsmakers on the planet, Polymarket, Trump holds nearly a 60% chance of claiming victory, a 10% increase from two weeks prior. As of Monday, Harris holds right around 40 percent, and trends from 2020 suggest that this is very good news for Trump.
According to RealClearPolling, President Joe Biden saw his odds climb to roughly 63% on the day before the election. On this day in 2020, Biden held a 62% chance while Trump’s odds dwindled from over the previous summer.
2016 was a rare case where both the polls and the odds markets had it wrong, with Hillary Clinton having held a -550 chance (bet $550 to win $100) according to OddsTrader.
National polls are still forecasting things as extremely close to even as we sit now less than three weeks away from the election and things start to take final shape. But now less than 20 days away from the November 5, 2024 general election, the markets are taking a clear stance that Trump will enter Election Day as the betting favorite.
Michael Brauner is a Senior Sports Analyst and Contributing Writer for Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @MBraunerWNSP and hear him every weekday morning from 6 to 9 a.m. on “The Opening Kickoff” on WNSP-FM 105.5, available free online.
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