Does a 2016 Dem start with 246 electoral votes?

After totaling the electoral votes in all the terminally blue states, an inconvenient math emerges, providing even a below average Democrat presidential candidate a potential starting advantage of 246. Here are the states and their votes:

CA (55), NY (29), PA (20), IL (20), MI (16), NJ (14), WA (12), MA (11), MN (10), WI (10), MD (10), CT (7), OR (7), HI (4), ME (4), NH (4), RT (4), VT (3), DE (3), DC (3).

Let me repeat, if only for the shock value: 246 votes out of 270 is 91 percent. That means the Democrat candidate needs to win only 24 more votes out of the remaining 292. (There are a total of 538 electoral votes.)

As Adams writes, this is partly why there are moves in the states to change the winner-take-all system to a proportional formula.  But that drastic of a move is unlikely.

That’s why Republicans are left to argue with Adams’ assumptions.

“Let’s just begin with the states on the list where the Democrat won with around 52 percent or so.  That removes 44 of these so-called sure votes,” emailed one GOP operative currently working for a likely 2016 candidate.

The four states most Republicans will attempt to argue remain in play: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.  Here’s a brief history of what any 2016 Republican is up against, courtesy of the essential 270towin.com: 

• PENNSYLVANIA — It’s a time-honored tradition that a Republican make a “late play” in the Keystone commonwealth.  Mitt Romney swooped into a Philadelphia suburb just days before the 2012 election.  Some reports estimated the crowd at 25,000 people.  He still fell short by 5 points.  The last Republican to carry Pennsylvania nationally was George H.W. Bush in 1988.  Not counting the unique 3-way races in 1992 and 1996, Republicans have lost the state since then by an average of 6 points a cycle.
• MICHIGAN –  Similar to Pennsylvania’s demographics and almost as big, Michigan is probably the second most-often cited blue state Republicans have vowed to put in play.  But like Pennsy, they haven’t won a national race there since 1988 either.  And the hill is steeper.  Over the last four cycles, the GOP’s average loss is 8 points.  Even favorite son Mitt Romney fell by nine points.
• WISCONSIN – George W. Bush came within 5,708 votes of Al Gore in 2000, but you have to go back to 1984 — Ronald Reagan’s reelection — to count a Republican who carried the Badger State in a White House race.  For a brief few weeks, Paul Ryan’s selection as Romney’s running mate appeared to make the state competitive, but history is a stubborn truth.  The 2012 margin was 7 points.  Given the virtual tie in 2000, Wisconsin looks barely more hospitable than Michigan, with an average loss of 7.5 points over the last four elections.  A Scott Walker candidacy would obviously alter the dynamic.
• NEW HAMPSHIRE – Republicans’ best case for a state to swipe off the permanent Democratic map is this one. George W. Bush actually carried the Granite State against Al Gore in 2000.  It was a nailbiter again in 2004, bringing the average loss over the last four cycles to only 4 points.  The problem, of course, is this is the smallest of marginally competitive states.  Take only these 4 electoral votes away and Democrats still stand at 242.

The battlegrounds of Florida, Virginia and Ohio are likely to retain their gilded status in 2016, but if Republicans are serious about expanding their paths to victory — it likely has to begin in one of these four states.

Republicans will gripe with Adams’ analysis and nit pick at the state-by-state conclusions — “A candidate who both energized the base and reached across to independents and Democrats has a good shot at many of those states,” asserted one strategist — but her overarching finding is an important one to remember, whether or not Hillary runs.