Ted Cruz’s ObamaCare antics may have earned the ire of establishment Republicans, but his steely, if not truculent obstinance has simultaneously propelled him to near-messianic status among the base of his party.
That’s why the Texan senator has ascended to the #3 position on The CHASE — our rolling monthly rankings of the most likely 2016 presidential nominee of each party.
Pollsters who weren’t even including Cruz in their 2016 field last spring now show him snaggingdouble-digit numbers. One poll, in fact, placed him vaulting to the top of the 2016 Republican nomination pack. Two critical state parties — in South Carolina and Florida — have formally moved to applaud Cruz’s effort to halt implementation of ObamaCare, even as it led to the government closing its doors. And over the weekend, he won the Values Voters straw poll in a walk, by a full 29 percentage points.
Whether Cruz’s moment in the sun is indeed just a moment is unknown, but it’s difficult to imagine him shrinking from the stage, even once the shutdown and debt ceiling debates subside.
Rand Paul and Chris Christie continue to top The CHASE due to their consistency at the top of a wide compilation of national polls and the GOP’s instinct to eventually settle on a more moderate nominee, if not flirting with an ideologue for a period of time. Some politicos are even arguing that Cruz’s brash performance over the last month have made Paul look more moderate and mainstream.
Would Paul and Cruz run against each other? They’re said to be friendly, but presidential politics has a way of testing even the most genuine alliances. A field with both Paul and Cruz would be the best scenario for Christie, the New Jersey governor on his way to a re-election route in the Garden State.
Cruz’s move to the #3 spot bumps Marco Rubio — the one-time leader of The CHASE — down to #4, his lowest standing on our ranking.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a candidate with little national name recognition but abundant potential has slid back into Tier 2. The emergence of a 2014 gubernatorial challenger — Democrat Mary Burke — should refocus Walker’s efforts back at home, at least partially.
The only other change in the Tier 2 section of The CHASE — is the replacement of Jon Huntsman with New York Rep. Peter King.
While King has stated he a presidential candidate — for now — The RUN reported that Huntsman has been signaling all around the country he is unlikely to make another run at the White House.
Some readers have objected to the labeling of certain candidates as even being in the second tier of prospects, but for now, The CHASE has decided to only construct two tiers of candidates — the elite, front-runners and the rest of the pack.
On the Democratic side of The CHASE — there are no changes, as is the pattern. The ordering of Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren remain set in stone.
Follow Dave’s blog at TheRun2016.com
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