Byrne internal poll shows tight race in final three weeks of Republican Senate primary
Yellowhammer News has obtained fresh internal polling conducted on behalf of Congressman Bradley Byrne’s (AL-01) U.S. Senate campaign that shows just a seven-point gap from third to first in the competitive Republican primary field.
Harper Polling, a national firm, conducted the survey Saturday — Sunday (February 8-9) of 609 likely Alabama Republican primary voters. The margin of error was ±3.97%.
On the ballot test (when voters were asked who they plan to vote for in the primary), 31% of respondents chose former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, compared to 26% for Byrne and 24% for former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville. Of respondents, 14% were undecided heading into the March 3 primary.
A memo by Logan Dobson, former polling director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and current Byrne campaign advisor, also featured the latest favorability ratings for Byrne.
For the coastal Alabama congressman, 64% of respondents said that they view him favorably, 17% responded unfavorably, 15% had no opinion and 5% had never heard of him.
The polling memo also provided a comparison to Byrne internal polling conducted December 11-12, which measured 500 likely GOP primary voters and occurred before Byrne started a huge advertising blitz on television and other mediums.
That December poll, per the latest memo, showed Sessions at 36% on the ballot test, followed by Tuberville at 29% and Byrne at 16%.
Byrne in the December survey reportedly had 50% of respondents view him favorably, compared to 22% unfavorably, 20% having no opinion and 8% never having heard of him.
Dobson wrote that the internal polling “shows significant momentum for the Byrne campaign.”
In a statement to Yellowhammer News, Byrne campaign manager Seth Morrow said, “With three weeks to go until Election Day, all the momentum is behind Bradley because voters know he is the only person in this race with a record of fighting for President Trump and our Alabama values.”
“As we continue to show Bradley’s pro-Trump, conservative record against the positions of the other candidates, we are confident Bradley will be the Republican nominee and ultimately defeat Doug Jones,” he continued. “Alabama deserves a proven conservative, not someone who talks out both sides of their mouth or someone who let Alabama down when it mattered most.”
For context, a Sessions internal poll conducted January 13-15 showed a much wider lead for the former U.S. Attorney General. That survey’s ballot test had Sessions receiving 43% of responses, compared to Byrne at 22% and Tuberville at 21%.
Both the Byrne and Tuberville campaigns in the past have argued that Sessions’ internal polling deviates from other independent and internal polling, showing Sessions significantly farther ahead than other surveys like a December Alabama Farmers Federation poll. The Sessions campaign has expressed strong confidence in their internal numbers.
The ultimate Republican nominee will go on to face U.S. Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) in November. President Donald J. Trump this past weekend tweeted his confidence that Jones will lose in the general election.
“So good to see that Republicans will be winning the Great State of Alabama Senate Seat back, now that lightweight Senator [Doug Jones] cast a partisan vote for the Impeachment Hoax,” Trump stated. “Thought his boss, Cryin’ Chuck, would have forced him to vote against the Hoax. A Do Nothing Stiff!”
Sean Ross is the editor of Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @sean_yhn