A survey conducted in recent days by The Alabama Poll is sounding the alarm on former Congressman Jerry Carl’s comeback bid in Alabama’s 1st Congressional District.

On an initial ballot test, Carl polled at 25%, with State Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) in second place at 9%.

Carl’s favorability ratio is under 2:1, at 32% favorable and 18% unfavorable. However, an executive summary of the poll obtained by Yellowhammer News spells concerning news for the candidate.

“[T]his advantage is built entirely on name recognition rather than voter loyalty. Once voters learn about Carl’s congressional record, his support collapses from 25% to 11.5%, dropping him to third place… Carl’s vulnerability is comprehensive and potentially fatal. Every attack message tested produces catastrophic negative reactions, with 70-80% of voters saying they would be less likely to support him. His support erodes most severely among the voters who should be his natural base: evangelicals, Trump supporters, and very conservative Republicans.”

“The race is highly fluid with 57% undecided on the initial ballot and 60% undecided even after information. A Katie Britt endorsement emerges as the single most valuable asset in the race, delivering +45 to +55 net persuasion with the exact voters who decide GOP primaries. The combination of Carl’s vulnerability and Britt’s endorsement value creates a clear path for a well-funded challenger to win this seat,” the memo added.

Carl has trailed significantly in fundraising to Marques, who spearheaded the “Save Our Bay” bill through the Alabama Legislature this week. Joshua McKee and Austin Sidwell are also challenging for the GOP nomination in Alabama’s 1st.

The poll surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of 4.9%.

Grayson Everett is the editor in chief of Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on X @Grayson270.