The daily average of new coronavirus cases in Alabama trended upwards in the last week as health experts urged the public in the strongest terms possible to keep observing COVID-19 precautions over the Labor Day weekend.
The warnings about public behavior over Labor Day were made in particular by Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, M.D., director of UAB’s Division of Infectious Diseases, who briefed reporters by videoconference on Thursday afternoon.
When Yellowhammer News last provided an update on the state’s coronavirus numbers last Friday, the state was averaging 722 new cases per day. Over the last week, that number rose to 829 cases per day, a 13% increase.
In Alabama, 114 individuals were hospitalized with COVID-19 on average each day over the last week, roughly in line for where the state’s hospitalizations have been since the third week of August.
Both new cases and hospitalizations remain far below their peaks in mid to late July.
A continuing topic of discussion among those in Alabama who closely observe the coronavirus case numbers remains the “probable cases” metric.
The Alabama Department of Public Health is now listing people who receive a positive result from rapid tests, also known as antigen tests, as people with “probable” cases of COVID-19.
The reason behind this decision is that the rapid tests are not as accurate as the traditional molecular tests that are examined in a laboratory. Further complicating matters is that some rapid tests are more accurate than others.
Yellowhammer News asked Marrazzo for her thoughts on the proper way to contextualize the rapid-test results.
“The short answer is that I think the probable numbers are reliable from the standpoint of accuracy for positivity,” she said in part.
“I would say believe the positives,” she added in summation of her thoughts on rapid tests.
In answering, Marrazzo also expressed frustration that the FDA had approved such a large number of rapid testing devices with varying levels of effectiveness.
With probable cases included, Alabama has averaged 1,180 new cases per day over the last week, which is down slightly from 1,222 on the week ending August 28.
Especially troubling to experts is Alabama’s increase in the percentage of tests coming back positive.
Over the last seven days 12.73% of COVID-19 tests administered have returned a positive result. That is up from 8.78% on August 28 and nearly double the recent low of 6.74% on August 19.
Experts say the ideal range of positivity for the virus to be considered under control is 1%-5%.
About 19 Alabamians have died with COVID-19 each day for the last week. That is an increase from an average on around 13 deaths per day on the week ending August 28.
The state’s total death count of people with the coronavirus is now 2,120, with another 113 that are likely but have not yet been confirmed by the investigators at the Alabama Department of Public Health.
Past trends in coronavirus statistics have shown that hospitalizations increase around two weeks after new cases increase, and deaths tick upwards about two to four weeks after a surge in hospitalizations.
Marrazzo on Thursday told the public that Alabama “narrowly escaped a serious issue with hospital capacity” in late July after a surge in cases that experts say was likely the result of activities over the 4th of July weekend when proper COVID-19 precautions were not observed.
“We have a sense of anxiety and deja vu going into these long three day weekends because the last several, including Memorial Day and the 4th of July in particular, have been associated with post-holiday surges,” she said
“The main message we want to leave you with today is that this is not a time to let up,” Marrazzo warned.
The full remarks by the infectious disease expert can be seen here:
Henry Thornton is a staff writer for Yellowhammer News. You can contact him by email: [email protected] or on Twitter @HenryThornton95
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