The Yellowhammer State enters day 29 under Governor Kay Ivey’s order declaring a state of emergency.
As a few other areas of the country, most notably New York City, are seeing the effects from more serious outbreaks, attention in Alabama is beginning to turn toward getting back to work.
Just as (projected) numbers fueled the initial frenzy, numbers are now shaping proposals for returning to normal.
Time for those numbers.
As of 6:00 a.m. on Friday. The Alabama Department of Public Health has reported 2,838 confirmed cases and 78 deaths. In the last 24 hours confirmed cases have increased by 339. Eleven deaths have occurred in the same time period.
These numbers still place the state far below what was projected by this date. Hospitalizations remain far below expected figures, as well. Alabama’s hospitals have taken in 333 patients since March 13.
The incubation period for coronavirus following exposure is between two and 14 days. Once an infected person begins to show symptoms, studies have shown that a person’s condition on day seven of symptoms is the time period determining hospitalization and day 10 being the most severe for effects of the virus. This means that the most severe cases currently in Alabama are people who contracted the virus as recently as April 1 or as long ago as March 18. Habits, hygiene and weather have all changed significantly since those dates.
Models take more heat. A lot of decisions were made based off of projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). IHME at one time predicted nearly 8,000 deaths in Alabama and hospital bed shortages in the thousands. This week, it lowered projected deaths to 634 in the state with bed shortages becoming nonexistent.
National reporter Alex Berenson now blames the model for decisions that effectively shut down America’s economy.
Same goes for writer Andrew McCarthy who complains that government has shut down businesses and confined people to their homes because of this.
A man with a plan. Senate President Pro Tem Del Marsh (R-Anniston) came forward on Thursday afternoon with a plan for getting Alabama’s economic engine back in gear. Marsh joined the chorus of those taking issue with enacting public policy based on models, writing, “Most governments … took their marching orders from the medical and healthcare communities choosing widespread lockdown and shelter in place mentalities. These decisions were largely adopted based on pandemic models that have proved to be largely unreliable.”
The upshot of Marsh’s plan is pretty simple: take care of vulnerable and older Alabamians and everyone else go back to work on May 1.
Tim Howe is an owner of Yellowhammer Multimedia
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