That one stung a little, didn’t it Auburn fans?
Whether it was the questionable officiating, the uncharacteristic mental mistakes or some plain bad luck, there’s been a certain emptiness in the days following the Tigers’ first loss of the season.
Diagnosing exactly what caused the loss hasn’t been easy, either.
Certainly Nick Marshall deserves some blame for his errant passing and continuing misfires on the zone read, but equal blame can be placed upon the offensive line, which was soundly beaten by State’s imposing front seven.
Then there’s head coach Gus Malzahn, who likely coached his worst game for Auburn on Saturday.
Between his finesse approach in the red zone, highlighted by that confusing reverse to tight end CJ Uzomah, and the offense’s lackluster pace, Saturday wasn’t Malzahn’s finest hour.
(Did I mention Roc Thomas’s disappearing act after igniting that Auburn scoring drive in the first half?)
All is not lost, however, Auburn fans. While the road is still grueling, and there is plenty of room for improvement, the Tigers’ postseason destiny still rests squarely on their own shoulders.
Here are four other reasons Auburn fans should (and shouldn’t) be concerned moving forward:
Auburn beat itself against State
Stay calm State fans. The Bulldogs rightfully and soundly defeated Auburn Saturday. There’s no denying that fact.
However, as much a role as Mississippi State played in its own victory, Auburn played an equal, if not greater, role in its own demise.
Take for instance the Tigers’ first two offensive plays.
While deflected Nick Marshall passes are nothing new, a fumble from D’haquille Williams, arguably the Tigers’ most consistent offensive weapon, is about as common as State reaching the top of the polls (i.e. they’ve both only happened once).
Before Auburn could even catch its breath, the Tigers were down 14-0. One three-and-out later, and the deficit was 21.
The panic of the opening drives seemed to wear off as Auburn clawed back within a score, but the uncharacteristic mistakes continued.
Between Sammie Coates’ lack of awareness in the back of the end zone and Ricardo Louis’ lackadaisical ball security on a 4th quarter kick return, there was no way for the Tigers to overcome their initial deficit.
Those mistakes allowed the Bulldogs to convert three touchdown drives requiring less than four plays and 35 yards. Dak Prescott lovingly accepted those gifts Saturday on his way to the top of the Heisman board.
While losing hurts, Auburn fans can take solace in the hopes that they’ve seen the very worst this team has to offer.
The rushing numbers are down. Way down.
Now for the bad news: Auburn’s rushing attack is scuffling.
The Tigers are currently averaging 262 rushing yards per game, putting them at No. 15 nationally in that category.
OK, so scuffling is relative to the team’s lofty 2013 standards, but it’s hard not to notice the difference.
Cameron Artis-Payne is well short of the record-breaking pace Tre Mason set as the lead back in 2013, while Corey Grant’s yards per carry average has dropped a whole three yards. The senior speedster has also seen his carries gradually diminished through 2014, culminating in a season-low one carry against State.
Marshall’s rushing numbers are actually up, with the senior quarterback rushing for 100 yards in all but two games so far this season, but the zone read still hasn’t clicked with Artis-Payne like it did with Mason. Marshall’s elusiveness while scrambling has provided a somewhat misleading bump to his totals this season.
Coming into the season, Mason and No. 2 overall pick Greg Robinson were widely seen as the team’s two biggest offensive departures. But after six games, one thing is clear: Auburn misses fullback Jay Prosch as much as either one of those guys.
The defense
Auburn’s defense has made significant strides in 2014, even if that wasn’t evident in the 38 points given up against Mississippi State.
In fairness to Ellis Johnson and his staff, the defense was repeatedly asked to defend the short field against Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs, a recipe for disaster against a Heisman candidate.
The defense did pretty well early in the game despite the situations, but uncharacteristic 3rd down lapses allowed the Bulldogs to pull ahead.
That said, the Tigers still managed to hassle and contain Prescott, allowing Auburn’s sputtering offense time to claw back into the game. Cornerback Jonathan Jones even picked off Prescott twice, one of which came in the end zone.
The defense is not perfect by any means (shoddy tackling and a mediocre pass rush immediately come to mind), but the overall improvement is impressive.
The Tigers have cut six points off their overall points allowed, and as a unit have risen from 48th to 14th nationally in that category.
After facing one of the country’s best offenses and the Heisman frontrunner, Auburn fans should feel comfortable with their defense against the likes of Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Alabama.
The remaining schedule
Speaking of the Rebels, Aggies and Crimson Tide, Auburn’s remaining schedule is brutal, to put it lightly.
No. 3 Ole Miss, No. 7 Alabama and No. 10 Georgia are all on the road, while South Carolina could be in a desperate situation when it comes to Jordan-Hare Stadium next week.
Auburn certainly isn’t inexperienced when it comes to road matchups, but another performance similar to the one produced against State could be fatal should they encounter historic environments like the one faced in Davis-Wade Stadium.
There is no more room for error for these Tigers. If their playoff dreams are to be realized, the rushing attack will need to improve and Marshall will have to become more consistent as a passer.
If anyone has the talent and scheme to make the playoff as a one-loss team though, you can bet it’s Malzahn and Auburn.
Follow Eric on Twitter @EWall14
