Six Questions for the 2014 Election Cycle

Here are six story lines we will be watching closely as campaign season gets underway:

1. Will Bentley expand Medicaid?

The June fundraising window is fast approaching but a credible primary challenger to Governor Robert Bentley has still not emerged. The Governor’s approval numbers remain strong. Barring something unforeseen, he is positioned to win reelection with relative ease.

But there is at least one major policy decision out there that could be a political pitfall.

Bentley has consistently said that he would not opt-in to expanding a “broken” Medicaid program under ObamaCare. Medicaid reform was a major part of the 2013 legislative session. Does the governor think that the reforms “fixed” the program enough to reconsider expanding it?

The leftwing Alabama press has started dripping out stories advocating for the expansion. But nothing would attract a challenger from the right quicker than expanding the state’s largest entitlement program.

2. Will Senate Republicans maintain a super majority?

Senate Republicans had a tough time keeping things moving this session, even with a filibuster-proof super majority. If Democrats can peel off a seat or two in 2014, or if the AEA can successfully plant some of their guys in Republican primaries — as they did with David Standridge and Randall Shedd recently in the House — it will be extremely challenging to continue pushing conservative reforms through the upper chamber.

A few of the districts the AEA will likely target include 8 (McGill), 9 (Scofield), 10 (Williams), 12 (Marsh), and 30 (Taylor).

3. Who’s not going to run for re-election?

Rumors have bounced around for months that Senators Del Marsh and Trip Pittman may not run for reelection in 2014.

Pittman has indicated to Yellowhammer that he has not made up his mind yet about 2014, but also said he is weighing a run for Congress in the First Congressional District.

Marsh in 2011 sold his company, Aerospace Coatings International, for somewhere between a trillion and a zillion dollars. Leading the Senate is without question one of the most exasperating jobs in Alabama politics. Marsh has done the job well, but with his personal wealth secure and few political challenges left to tackle, is he ready to move on to the next phase of his life?

If Pittman and Marsh — and others — start raising money in June, we’ll know they are coming back. If not, jockeying for senate leadership positions will be a major story line of the 2014 legislative session.

Smart money says they’ll both seek reelection, but rumors continue to swirl.

4. How will ALFA’s political operation adapt to their first Republican-centered election cycle?

ALFA has been a well known grassroots force in Alabama politics for decades. They’ve been a bit slow to adapt to the new Republican-controlled landscape, but ALFA President Jimmy Parnell has indicated to Yellowhammer that he’s serious about changing the culture inside their political operation.

The recent departure of long time ALFA political chief John Pudner suggests changes may be on the way. Insiders will be watching closely to see who they plug in to head up their political shop during the upcoming cycle.

5. What role will incumbent protection PACs play in 2014?

Incumbent protection PACs on the right will be working overtime in 2014 to counter the AEA’s decision to spend an extra $4 million in 2014 and hire Obama’s grassroots organization.

The most active incumbent protection PACs to watch out for include NETPAC, STORM PAC and 2014 PAC, which are controlled by Mike Hubbard, Del Marsh and their allies, and The Business Council of Alabama’s Progress PAC.

6. Will Terry Dunn back off his enviro push in an attempt to salvage his reelection chances?

Dunn’s decision to align himself with leftwing environmentalists has made him the top target for a Republican primary challenge in 2014. Conservative candidates have been coming out of the woodwork.

He’s had ample opportunity to make a course correction, but at this point it is probably two late for Dunn to shake the environmentalist stigma attached to his name.

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