What role did turnout play in Alabama’s new congressional district?

Congressman-elect Shomari Figures secured a victory in Tuesday’s General Election with 54.5% of the vote in Alabama’s newly-drawn 2nd Congressional District to defeat Montgomery attorney Caroleene Dobson.

Statewide, turnout in Alabama was relatively low at 58.5%. In fact, only four states had lower turnout: West Virginia (54.1%), Arkansas (53.1%), Oklahoma (52.9%) and Mississippi (50.5%). That’s relatively expected, especially compared to crucial battleground states such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which all saw turnout surpass 70%.

But how did the 2nd District compare to Alabama’s other Congressional districts?

Despite being the most competitive Congressional race in the state, AL-2 actually saw lower turnout than any other District where there was a nominee from both parties. 288,156 voters cast their ballots in AL-2, compared to 328,066, 344,927, and 292,759 in AL-1, AL-6, and AL-7, respectively.

In AL-3, AL-4, and AL-5, far fewer votes were cast for the Congressional seats, given that the incumbent in each district faced no challengers.

A more in-depth look at turnout by county within AL-2 reveals that some of Alabama’s most rural counties also boast some of its highest turnout rates. Conecuh County has only 9,820 registered voters — but over 60% cast their ballots in the AL-2 contest on Tuesday. Similarly, over 60% of Washington County’s 13,788 registered voters made their choice in the AL-2 race. Only two counties, Macon and Russell, had less than 50% turnout.

(Alabama Secretary of State, YHN)

Turnout in every single county in AL-2 was down compared to the 2020 presidential contest. However, Figures was able to keep turnout from dropping substantially in several counties that he won, such as Macon and Mobile counties. While Figures did carry Bullock county, which saw a substantial drop, only 4,100 ballots were cast there this year, causing minimal damage to his electoral chances.

Meanwhile, counties that Dobson won such as Butler, Monroe, Pike, and Washington, all saw turnout rates that were significantly lower than 2020. Butler county notably had a 65% turnout rate in 2020, compared to a 58% turnout rate on Tuesday.

Regardless of the county-by-county analysis, the statistical reality of Alabama’s new 2nd District is that Mobile and Montgomery will remain in command of the seat. 66% of votes cast for AL-2 came from those two counties alone.

Grayson Everett is the state and political editor for Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on X @Grayson270

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