To get its first-ever NCAA Tournament win, Troy will have to go through a program with 132 of them.
In its first March Madness appearance since 2017, the Trojans men’s basketball team (23-10, 13-5 Sun Belt) will take on the Kentucky Wildcats (22-11, 10-8 SEC) on March 21st at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
“This is a huge day for Troy Basketball and we’re thrilled to be representing our university and community on a national stage,” head coach Scott Cross said. “This will be an awesome opportunity to show the country what we’re all about. Our players and staff have worked so hard to get to this moment and I cannot wait to get to Milwaukee and start competing.”
Had ourselves a 𝗣𝗔𝗥𝗧𝗬 🎉#TakeTheStairs | #OneTROY⚔️🏀 pic.twitter.com/3IPSDhPb9O
— Troy Trojans MBB (@TroyTrojansMBB) March 17, 2025
The 14th-seeded Trojans won the Sun Belt regular season and tournament championships and boast wins over South Alabama and Arkansas State. The 3rd-seeded Wildcats finished tied for sixth in the SEC and possess a stacked resume that includes victories over Duke, Florida, and Tennessee.
The winner of the matchup will take on Illinois, Xavier, or Texas in the Round of 32.
𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗞𝗘 🧀
🔗: https://t.co/xlRp4bYrnx pic.twitter.com/3XLXHYCmbV
— Troy Trojans MBB (@TroyTrojansMBB) March 16, 2025
Troy has only made two previous NCAA Tournament appearances at the Division I level, losing to Duke in 2017 and to Xavier in 2003. The Trojans are looking for their first postseason victory of any kind since they finished runner-up at the 1993 Division II tournament.
Kentucky, on the other hand, is no stranger to the March Madness spotlight. The Wildcats rank first all-time in tournament wins, first all-time in tournament appearances, and second all-time in national championships among DI programs.
UK’s blue-blood status is reflected in betting markets, as initial lines peg head coach Mark Pope’s squad as 10.5-point favorites over Troy with an 86.67% implied chance of victory. Advanced analytics are similarly high on the Wildcats, as Troy ranks 98th nationally in KenPom.com’s rankings while Kentucky ranks 16th.
However, Kentucky has been the victim of multiple high-profile upsets in recent seasons. In 2022, St. Peter’s became just the 10th 15 seed to win a game in tournament history, shocking the second-seeded Wildcats in an overtime thriller. In 2024, Oakland rode the hot three-point shooting of fan-favorite Jack Gohlke to an iconic victory that sent former UK head coach John Calipari out of Lexington. The Trojans will enter the weekend with more favorable pregame odds than either of the previous giant-slayers.
Gohlke predicts Troy will follow in his team’s footsteps and again pull off the 14-over-3 upset.
Oakland legend Jack Gohlke's bracket!
Drake makes a Sweet 16 run 😤
Kentucky out first round 🫣
Houston cuts down the nets ✂️#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/H2zLh9dVn1— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 18, 2025
To see its name written in the annals of March Madness history, Troy will have to overcome a massive shotmaking disadvantage. The Trojans are one of the nation’s least capable shooting teams, making just 30.3% of their three-pointers on the season and ranking in the 14th percentile of jump shot efficiency.
Conversely, Kentucky is deadly from both inside and outside the arc, shooting 37.4% from three-point range and 55.9% from two-point range, both marks that place them among the nation’s top 30.
However, it is unlikely Kentucky will be able to fully take advantage of all its opponents’ weaknesses. Troy is highly susceptible to turnovers, giving the ball away on a sky-high 19.9% of its possessions, but UK plays an ultra-conservative style of defense and forces turnovers at one of the nation’s lowest rates.
Troy also ranks among the worst defensive rebounding teams in the Sun Belt, but the Wildcats are average at best on the offensive glass.
The Trojans will not win the shot quality battle, so their path to victory lies in winning the shot quantity battle: forcing turnovers while limiting turnovers of their own, scoring second-chance points while keeping Kentucky off the offensive glass, and trying to produce as many extra possessions as they can. Led by forwards Thomas Dowd and Jackson Fields, Troy is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and Sun Belt Player of the Year Tayton Conerway sports the third-highest steal rate among Division I players.
The Wildcats are also struggling mightily with injury. Key backcourt pieces Kerr Kriisa and Jaxson Robinson are both out for the year, and starting point guard Lamont Butler is set to play but is returning from a shoulder injury that has been aggravating him for over a month.
UK’s absences, coupled with Troy’s potential matchup advantages, have led some to believe that the Trojans have a fighting chance.
“There is a 42% chance we have a 14 seed upset over a 3 seed this year,” statistician Evan Miyakawa posted on social media. “The most likely culprit is Troy, with a 20% chance of beating Kentucky. This probability would be much lower if Kentucky had a fully healthy squad.”
The game will tip off at 6:10 PM CT on Friday on CBS.
