Top 10 most vulnerable Alabama incumbents

1. Public Service Commissioner Terry Dunn, R-Southside

There’s no Republican in the state who’s more out of touch with Alabama’s conservative base than Terry Dunn. After siding with environmental groups in a series of battles at the Alabama Public Service Commission, Dunn has found himself in the crosshairs of two viable Republican primary challengers — former Greene County Commission Chairman Chip Beeker and Alabama Minority GOP Chairman Philip Brown. Republicans have abandoned Dunn in droves. He will have a very difficult time raising the kind of money his campaign will need to beat back his challengers, especially Beeker, who has proven himself to be a solid fundraiser.

2. Pike County Sheriff Russell Thomas, D-Troy

The five-term sheriff of Pike County is just about the last Democrat standing in his neck of the woods. Pike County’s state representative, state senator and probate judge are all Republicans. He’s put himself on island recently by alienating local leaders. He’s still operating like he was 10 years ago when you could be a heavy-handed Democrat Party boss and still get away with it. Times have changed.

3. Sen. Harri Anne Smith, I-Dothan

Due to a major falling out with the local Republican Party a few years back, Smith is now in Independent in a heavily Republican district. She has cited family reasons for not being able to attend regularly during the legislative session, but her absence left her sponsoring only one local bill in 2013 — a bill to bring forth a referendum on Sunday alcohol sales in Dothan. Popular Republican county commissioner Melinda McClendon is challenging Smith in 2014. It promises to be one of the most interesting races of the cycle.

4. (tie) Sen. Tammy Irons, D-Florence and Sen. Marc Keahey, D-Grove Hill

The shifting population in Irons’ and Keahey’s districts left them in tough shape after reapportionment went into effect.

Athens city councilman Chris Seibert, who played football at Bama, is challenging Irons as a Republican. Tea Party candidate Danny Joyner is taking a second crack at taking down Keahey. He fell just short in 2010. Word around south Alabama is that Keahey actually might decide to not seek re-election rather than waging an uphill battle to hold his seat.

6. Rep. Daniel Boman, D-Sulligent

Boman is one of the most bizarre characters in Alabama politics. You have to question the political acumen of someone who switches parties from Republican to Democrat right when Republicans win the majority for the first time since Reconstruction. Now he’s legal counsel to former youth evangelist Matt Pitt in his ongoing arrest and imprisonment saga.

Boman has some of the worst polling numbers in the state. Insiders say his hard re-elect is below 15 percent — meaning less than 15 out of 100 people surveyed say they plan to vote for Boman no matter who runs against him. That’s atrocious.

7. Sen. Shadrack McGill, R-Scottsboro

Lackluster fundraising, discontent among local Republicans because of his lack of activity in the district, and a steady string of negative press has left McGill extremely vulnerable to a primary challenge. AEA Republican Todd Greason, R-Ider, is giving up his state house seat to take a shot at McGill. But conservative businessman Steve Livingston is the one to watch. If Livingston can muster the resources, SD-8 will have a shot at having some decent representation.

8. Rep. Steve Hurst, R-Munford

Hurst ran as a Democrat in 2010, then promptly switched parties days after the election once he saw Republicans had taken control. He barely fended off his general election challenger in 2010, now he has to face him in the Republican primary. Hurst’s voting record hasn’t shifted at all since he became a Republican. RINO is an overused acronym these days, but it describes Hurst to a tee.

9. Rep. Greg Burdine, D-Florence

While Burdine’s state house district votes Republican for U.S. Senate, governor and just about everything else, they’ve shown a willingness to continue sending liberal Democrat Greg Burdine back to Montgomery. 2014 may be the year Burdine’s record finally catches up with him. HD-1 is a conservative-leaning district. That leaves an entrenched leftwing politician like Burdine in a tough spot.

10. Rep. Craig Ford, D-Gadsden

House Minority Leader Craig Ford may end up being one of the few incumbents in the state who has to survive both a tough primary and general election. A black female county commissioner is widely believed to be eyeing Ford’s seat, and his district has shown in recent years that it’s becoming more willing to elect Republicans. Ford is still AEA’s favored son, so he’ll have the resources to try and beat back any potential challengers, but his race will still be one to watch, depending on who gets in.

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