Surprise: Christie tops in South Carolina

Here’s a surprise:  A Jersey Yankee leads the early Republican presidential field in South Carolina.

Chris Christie comes out on top in a new Harper Polling survey of the Palmetto State, capturing 19 percent.

Still more — 22 percent — are undecided, but Christie’s number in a southern and traditionally conservative state underlines his outsized national presence.

The numbers are from Harper, a GOP-affiliated outfit which surveyed 676 likely Republican voters Oct. 27-28.  This appears to be the first public poll this year of the South Carolina presidential primary:

Chris Christie 19%

Ted Cruz 17%

Rand Paul 13%

Marco Rubio 12%

Paul Ryan 12%

Bobby Jindal 6%

With a 3.7 percent margin of error, Cruz is in a virtual tie, with Sen. Rand Paul right on their heels.

But given Cruz’s stardom coming out of the government shutdown, his position isn’t as surprising.

Let’s go inside the Harper crosstabs for more nuggets:

• In South Carolina’s top city — CHARLESTON (!) — Christie and Cruz are TIED at 22.2 percent a PIECE.
• The biggest South Carolina gender gap belongs to Rand Paul — he runs four points better among women than men.
• Paul runs best among the youngest (18-35); Cruz performs best among seniors (66+)
• The conservative vs. moderate divide between Christie and Cruz is well . . . just silly.  Christie gets 45 percent of moderates and 11 percent of conservatives.  Cruz draws 25 percent of conservatives and 4 percent of moderates.  (Moderates for CRUZ!)
• Jeb Bush was not included in the poll.  If he was, it’s plausible he cuts into Christie’s number.  But Harper Polling president Brock McCleary says he doesn’t buy Jeb is running.  ”I leave him out because I believe he distorts reality too much.”

The smarts on this very early poll: It’s a snapshot in time of the few that are paying attention, but don’t take it too seriously.

South Carolina-based political consultant Fred Wszolek explains:  ”Right now a robo poll about the 2016 presidential race is probably a pretty good read about what hyper-attentive, party elites might be thinking, because everybody else in America has better things to do than answer questions about something that far in the future.  You only participate because you’re super engaged.  As you get closer to election day, way more people are in that state of being super engaged.”

“I wouldn’t think that a poll of South Carolina that shows a New Jersey governor with a small lead is worthless, but it probably doesn’t model very well against the people who will actually show up on E-Day,” Wszolek continued.

After all, another northeastern Republican had a lead in South Carolina once too.

His name was Rudy Giuliani.  And the year was 2007.  

Come primary day 2008, Giuliani netted 2 percent.

McCleary thinks Christie is benefiting from favorable national press at the moment, but he also believes the governor can genuinely be competitive in South Carolina.

“He embodies the fight in the heart of conservatives better than anyone.  I’m betting he’s good enough at selling the fight that he can make enough of them see past cultural differences,” McCleary said.

Follow Dave’s blog at TheRun2016.com