Rumors & Rumblings

“Rumors and Rumblings” is a weekly feature that runs each Wednesday. It includes short nuggets of information that we glean from conversations throughout the week. Have a tip? Send it here. All sources remain confidential.

1. Fresh off of reelection in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Martha Roby now has a good shot at rising into the leadership ranks in the U.S. House of Representatives. Rep. Roby is currently locked in a tight race for GOP Conference Vice Chair with Kansas Rep. Lynn Jenkins.

The race ensures that there will be at least one woman in House GOP leadership in the 113th Congress. But there could very well be many more. Female GOP lawmakers are also vying for the positions of Conference Chair and Conference Secretary.

Current GOP Conference Chairwoman Kathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.) is running for Conference Chair against Current GOP Policy Chairman Tom Price (Ga.) for the position of Conference Chair. North Carolina Rep. Virginia Foxx is also running against Mississippi Rep. Gregg Harper and California Rep. Jeff Denham for Conference Secretary. All of these races are set to be decided later this afternoon.

Speaker Boehner, Majority Leader Cantor, and Majority Whip McCarthy are all running unopposed. House leadership elections take place later this afternoon.

2. With Rep. Jeremy Oden awaiting his appointment to the PSC, residents in his House district are starting to line up to run for his soon-to-be vacated seat. Here’s who we’re hearing so far:
– Joe Perry of Holly Pond was defeated by Rep. Oden in the 2010 Republican primary
– Lydia Haynes of Cullman whose husband serves on the ALFA board as a District Director
– Randall Shedd who just finished up serving 16 years as the Mayor of Fairview. Insiders say he may garner the backing of the AEA.
– Garlan Gudger, Jr. who currently serves as President of the Cullman City Council. He was also named earlier this year to the Yellowhammer Local Leader 20, a list of 20 rising stars on the local level.
– Dave Ozment, co-chairman of the Cullman County Republican Party who ran against Rep. Oden in 2006

3. Recent polling done by pollsters Jim and John McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates on behalf of the House and Senate Republican Caucuses seem to indicate that voters are at a historical high in their support for the legislative initiatives pushed by the GOP leadership and members.

The polling was presented to the House & Senate caucuses over the last couple of weeks and since then Yellowhammer has had the opportunity to review some of the data. A summary of the high points is below and while this is not a complete picture of the poll, the information below is pretty insightful.

First, let’s dig in to the poll’s voter profile:

The survey was 73% white and 24% African American with the remainder hispanics and other ethnic groups.

41% of those surveyed self-identified as Republicans and 33% self-identified as Democrats. Among white voters, the split was 53-18.

Of all voters, 56% identify themselves as conservatives, 26% moderate and 15% liberal. Among white voters, 64% identify themselves as conservative.

Several weeks ago via other polling, we pointed out that about half of Alabamians agree with the ideas and beliefs of the Tea Party. This poll shows Tea Party support at 52% among all voters and 64% among white voters.

Generally speaking, Alabamians are split on the direction of the state. 42% say we are on the right track and 47% say we’re on the wrong track. Among conservatives and white voters they are equally split and mimic the overall numbers. Voters also continue to believe we are in a recession or depression with 60% saying we are in one of those categories.

What is most interesting is how the voters view the job being done by their representatives in Montgomery. In spite of the right track/wrong track number, voters continue to be very pleased with their Republican legislature & its leadership.

In the Generic Ballot for State Legislature, Republicans have a healthy 50-36 margin over the generic Democrat candidate. The pollster tells me that this is an all-time high and that it’s an 8-point bump for Republicans since 2008. Generic ballot among white voters is 63% Republican – 21% Democrat and among white Conservatives it’s 80% Republican – 9% Democrat.

Job approval for Republicans in the legislature is equally strong. Those polled give Republicans a 49% approval rating. Among white Conservatives the number jumps to 71%. Contrast this with the single-digit approval rating of the U.S. Congress and it becomes obvious that Republicans in the Alabama Legislature are in a very strong position as we turn the corner toward 2014.

Democrats have a 39% job approval rating and among white Conservatives, the voters who will most be in play in any contested general election, 68% disapprove of the job Democrats have done in the Alabama Legislature.

Yellowhammer will have more on this soon including details on how voters feel each side of the aisle is handling issues such as taxes, the economy, job creation and education. We’ll also have some pretty interesting data regarding the use of social media in politics.