Leading up to the 2024 United States Presidential Election, there was – as is usually the case – an extremely varied consensus on what the results were going to be.

Since the summer and Vice President Kamala Harris’ installation into the race, the polls have sat at relatively close for the most part. Former President Trump was performing better than he was before the 2020 election, but nobody was really sure if that was actually the case or if pollsters were overcorrecting after underestimating Trump in both 2016 and 2020.

As it turns out, they were correct in trends but the gap was not wide enough as it looks like a resounding GOP victory as of Wednesday afternoon.

The betting odds market meanwhile, while of course it went up and down as everything does, for the most part was fairly consistent in predicting a Trump victory.

Polymarket, which has emerged as the most popular platform for people to wager on American politics, is touting a near exact prediction of how the map would play out on their X account today:

🎯 pic.twitter.com/qGh0kFKS4N

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 6, 2024

While the margins were closer than they ended up being, the site stayed fairly consistent in the past few week with Trump leading in every swing state, and that’s exactly how the results played out. It’s a fascinating development for the forecasting of future elections to see in general more accuracy from the betting markets than from the polls themselves.

By the time 2028 rolls around, there’s no doubt that many will look to gambling market trends before they look at polls when it comes to predicting who the next president will be.